Why Jammu & Kashmir Preferred The National Conference

Five years after the abrogation of Article 370 and ten years after the last Assembly elections, Jammu & Kashmir has given its verdict. And if the results posit any political messaging, it is ‘Dignity, Identity and Development’—the title of the manifesto of the National Conference, which has become the single largest party in the Union Territory with 42 seats.

The turnaround of NC from its dismal performance in the 2014 assembly elections, when they got only 15 seats with a 21% vote share, could be due to many factors. However, analysts think it is the promise of the restoration of Article 370 that worked in favour of them.

 The party in its manifesto prioritised the question of restoration and dignity. In his note to the people, former CM Farooq Abdullah wrote, “Our identity has not only been questioned but systematically eroded. Yet, even in the face of this relentless onslaught, I hold onto hope—a hope that is rooted in the belief that one day, my people will live with the honour and dignity that is rightfully theirs.”

The word ‘dignity’ came in the manifesto five times and on each occasion, they made it clear that nothing is more important for the party than the question of Kashmiri identity, which they think was taken away by the BJP on August 5, 2019.

Promising restoration, NC wrote in its manifesto: “Our fight to restore Article 370, as enshrined in the Constitution, continues alongside the reinstatement of Article 35A. We will also strive to reinstate the state constitution and state flag, preserving our dignity, identity and heritage.”

Notably, the NC seemed to be the only credible mainstream party pledging to restore Article 370 during the election campaign. The other claimant, the Peoples Democratic Party, had ‘lost’ the faith of the people. The Congress, NC’s alliance partner, avoided the question of abrogation altogether and focused on restoration of statehood.

The PDP is mostly blamed for bringing the BJP into power in J&K in 2014. Former professor of University of Jammu, Rekha Chowdhary while talking about the possibility of the NC joining hands with the BJP before the election results came out, said: “The political parties have learnt a lesson from what happened to PDP when they clinched a deal with the BJP. The NC would never take the risk.” In the absence of a strong PDP claim, the NC remained the only one promising the restoration of Article 370 and hence, their dignity.

On the other hand, the BJP’s campaign on "development" failed to attract the voters in the valley. Though they performed well in Jammu region, they couldn’t garner anything in Kashmir. The question of development, nevertheless, came up several times in NC’s campaign as well. The party has promised 100,000 jobs, a Youth Employment Act, 200 free units of electricity, Rs 5,000 per month to female heads in Economically Weaker Section (EWS) families, free LPG cylinders and free education up to university level.

But the central question of dignity triumphed over any other factor. The Congress’s promise of restoration of statehood also centred its discourse on the dignity question. AICC media coordinator in J&K Abbas Hafiz Khan said, “The question of statehood is connected to the dignity of the Kashmiri people and we would fight for that.”

Though Congress couldn’t perform at a par with its expectations, they would be a crucial part of the government with 7 seats. In the last couple of days since the exit polls came out, there were discussions over the significance of five Governor’s nominees in the Legislative Assembly. As a hung Assembly was predicted, political pundits thought that the five nominees would play a significant role in the formation of the government.

According to the Jammu and Kashmir reorganisation Act, 2019, the Governor is to nominate five people in the Assembly. On October 7, BJP vice-president Sofi Yusuf even said that the Governor would nominate BJP members only. However, with the NC and Congress having a comfortable majority, the nominees would not have much relevance in the government formation.

But will the NC be able to restore the Article 370? Scholars think they would only be able to pass a resolution in the Assembly, placing the ball in the Centre’s court. The BJP has clearly said that there would be no chance of going back to pre-2019 days. Without the support of the Centre, it is improbable for the regional government to realise the promise. One should also remember that in 1999, when the Farooq Abdullah government passed a resolution in favour of Kashmir’s political autonomy following the report of the state government, the central government blatantly rejected it. Notably, the NC was then part of the central government.

Keeping these (im)possibilities in mind, scholars like Chowdhary earlier said that the restoration of Article 370 is just a political rhetoric for the consumption of the voters.  After gaining formidable majority, the senior Abdullah said: “We stand with India. There are major tragedies. We would remove the tragedies that occurred in the last 10 years. The media is not free in Kashmir. I want to see those who are in jail from media are released.” However, since the results, the Abdullahs haven’t yet spoken about restoration of Article 370. But the focus on a ‘police-free’ state is there. “We want to make the state free of oppression. There should be people’s rule, not of the police,” says Farooq Abdullah. Will the new government keep the promise of restoring ‘dignity’? It is perhaps too early to tell.