India is a fine ship, but as it waits pathetically for a staunch crew and captain, it's taking in dangerous levels of water in its hold...
ON December 5, 1872, about 400 miles west of Lisbon, the American ship Dei Gratia plunged headlong into the strangest conundrum in the history of shipping. Around three in the afternoon, it came abreast of a 103-foot American brigantine called Mary Celeste, which appeared to be unmanned and drifting. Captain Morehouse sent three sailors to board the ship. What they found on board has never been explained satisfactorily.
Most of the sails were set, and the cargo hatches were securely battened. In the galley, preparations had been made for a meal, although nothing had been served. In the crew's quarters, clothes lay on bunks and washing hung from lines. In the captain's cabin, a small organ belonging to the captain's wife still had a sheet of music in it. Her daughter's toys lay around as if she had just stepped out of the room. The captain's logbook lay on his table; the last entry, a perfectly normal one, had been on November 25. There was nothing unusual about anything...except that there was not a soul in sight. In the last 125 years, no one has been able to come up with a theory that matches all the available facts.
Reminds me of the Indian economy, 1997, with everything apparently in place. Foreign currency reserves: $30 billion or so, enough to make other nations oppose India's demand for concessional terms in the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Monsoons? Just right for nine years running, belying all pessimists. Inflation? Down to some sort of absurd figure that the Bundesbank would be proud of. And so on and so forth. Yet, the Indian economy is a ghostship drifting along. When was the last time you heard of anyone setting up a Rs 500-crore project? How many share application forms do you get dumped in your mailbox per month? How long has it been since a businessman friend told you that things were going swimmingly well for him? Do you know anyone who has made a great career move in the last six months? How many fingers do you need to count the consumer durable brands which are selling at their full prices today? When was the last piece of good news you heard about India?
And why couldn't someone buy Gujral and Kesri some fax machines so that their letters didn't take an average of three days to reach one another, only around two-and-a-half kilometres apart?
Faith may not move mountains, but it does fuel the economy. Faith that a policy announced today by one minister would not be attacked by his Cabinet colleague three days later. That the minister who had assured you of speedy movement of your file would be around long enough for the file to reach him. That the government meant it when it said it would set up a committee to study a problem your industry was facing, and it would submit its report on time. That you could spend a third of your bank balance on a new refrigerator fearlessly: after all, your job was secure.
Of all Mary Celeste's mysteries, the most baffling is this. Assuming its sailors abandoned ship on November 25, the date of the last entry in the captain's log, Mary Celeste kept on course—it was going from New York to Genoa in Italy—without a crew for the next 10 days and 500 miles! When the Dei Gratia found the Mary Celeste, the latter had her sails set on a starboard tack. And it could never have travelled the distance it had with the sails set thus. Someone had been on board since the last log entry!
Who's been in charge in India? Here too, Mary Celeste's history is illuminative. It was launched in 1861 as the Amazon and endured an incredible series of mishaps. Her first skipper died on the eve of her first voyage. His replacement ran her into a fishing boat on that trip and the brig had to return to port for repairs. In dock, a fire broke out. On her first Atlantic crossing, she collided with another brig, which sank. After which, the Amazon set off for home and ran aground on a sandbank. The ship was then sold several times and ended up with a New York consortium who renamed her the Mary Celeste.
Sounds like the history of post-independence India to me: bad luck, incompetence, and short-sighted exploitation for profits (money for the ship's owners, votes and the perks of power for our politicians) combining to send a nation spiralling into living-on-the-edge disequilibrium. If there is one thing the Indian people, and the Indian economy needs today, it's a stable government. India is a fine ship, but as it waits pathetically for a staunch crew and captain, it's taking in dangerous levels of water in its hold. "I don't care if it's the bloody BSP running the government at Delhi," a mid-sized industrialist told me last week. "I just want some sort of assurance that the government's writ will run and the men I see up there will manage to stay safe and strong for a full term." As the UF and the Congress played out their ridiculous game, events have moved beyond the realm of black humour. Our leaders have taken us into a world where the word "shame" has no meaning.
Everyone I meet, though, tells me that we will never have a stable government in the near future. The choice will be between coalitions that are more stable and those that are less. I personally do not believe this—foolhardily, I suppose, but if that reading is true.... Over 11 years since it was found drifting and empty, the Mary Celeste changed hands 17 times. She sailed up and down America's eastern seaboard, losing crew and cargo, and suffering every sort of mishap from collisions to shipboard fires. In 1884, her last owners overinsured her and sent her to Haiti where, in the calmest of seas and with the clearest visibility, she ran aground! The conspirators were brought to book but Mary Celeste rotted away forgotten on a coral reef.