A Touch Of Realpolitik

THERE is more than a touch of irony to the way in which political pundits are today vying with each other to predict a Congress revival under Sonia Gandhi's leadership. It is these same worthies who had not so long ago appeared so confident that she would lead the party to disaster. Indeed, analysts who are constantly mocking politicians for abruptly switching to the winning side are themselves as adept in clambering on to the bandwagon of success.

Yet, the spectacular string of election victories under her belt that has overnight earned the Gandhi widow respect from those who mocked her political credentials before, are only a part of the emerging Sonia saga. For, redoubtable as the Congress performance has been in the state assembly polls, it is the restraint and maturity with which she has handled her party's turnaround at the hustings which has really been impressive. In fact, it is the political savvy to regard the election results as a launching pad and not the finishing line which does Sonia far more credit than the rich poll harvest gifted by the BJP.

For the Congress, which had become synonymous with political greed and sleaze, the sober approach by the party supremo has had an electrifying effect on its image. This became apparent during television panel discussions even as the results came in. TV anchormen who asked Congress leaders with a nudge and a wink about which of the BJP allies were expected to play ball were visibly surprised when they were told that there was no question of a toppling game and it was a long and difficult haul for the party before it came to power.

 Any lingering speculation about an imminent Congress coup was squashed by the lady herself the next morning. Exuding confidence in the Delhi winter sun, Sonia made her first TV appearance after the famous victory, treating it in a remarkably matter-of-fact manner. Expressing her reluctance to rush into any situation, she actually advised her party colleagues not to boast but get down to work.

The Congress president's heavy accent emphasising "not rush" and "not boast but work" on national TV appears to be the new mantra for the party which has behaved in an uncharacteristically responsible manner after the poll results. In Parliament, Congress MPs have pointedly distanced themselves from loutish tantrums by sections of the Opposition demanding the resignation of the BJP regime. And party leaders have made it amply clear that the Congress is simply not interested at the moment in either pulling the rug from under the government or putting together a hastily cobbled alternative.

This refreshing lack of posturing has undone much of the incalculable damage done to the Congress' image by leaders like Sitaram Kesri. The election results may have proved the minorities, Dalits and backward castes are coming back to the party. But the political propriety displayed by Sonia after vanquishing the BJP has won the grudging admiration of even the urban intelligentsia which still has major problems with her Italian accent and dynastic trappings.

Of course, the gains of the post-poll strategy adopted by the Gandhi widow go well beyond merely endearing herself to the chattering classes. It has swiftly carved out an autonomous political space for the Congress which no longer seems to be resigned to lean on crutches provided by motley regional parties and groups. Much to the chagrin of local barons like Mulayam Singh Yadav, Sonia has used the Congress poll triumph to dispel public perceptions of the party as a part of a ragtag anti-BJP coalition.

Calculating that the individual compulsions of the party's allies would make them cling on to the ruling alliance despite the alarm bells rung by the polls, she has cleverly avoided the setback of an abortive coup. Instead, she has thrown a rope to prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee to hang himself as the growing demands of the allies and dissensions within the BJP itself propel his government to its final denouement.

THERE are those who feel that Sonia is losing a golden opportunity and allowing the BJP vital time to regroup and consolidate. Others maintain that the Congress' reluctance to go in for the kill could reverse the flow of minorities and Dalits coming back to the party. Some even suggest that she has been intimidated by the threat of a fresh Bofors disclosure. It is quite possible that should the BJP regime escape unscathed in the coming months, the pundits would be back knocking the Gandhi widow for her political naivete. Yet, right from her dramatic advent in politics earlier this year, Sonia has approached her daunting task step by step. By accepting the leadership of the Congress, her first achievement was to stop the party from crumbling. This in turn allowed the party to be the sole beneficiary of the BJP's inability to keep its promise of providing a stable government under an able leader.

Having reversed the dismal trend of electoral setbacks that had eroded the confidence of the Congress in recent years, Sonia has now turned to the next step of raising the party from the dead in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. She knows that without at least a partial Congress revival in this vast hinterland, her chances of ascending the Delhi throne will remain a chimera. She also realises that this herculean exercise can be far better accomplished with the Congress in opposition rather than heading a wobbly coalition. Indeed, the Gandhi widow is perhaps the only political leader today who understands the value of occupying opposition space.

The day after the winter parliamentary session began, newspapers carried side by side photographs of Sonia Gandhi and Atal Behari Vajpayee entering Parliament. Sonia looked demure yet formidable, next to her the prime minister with defeat written all over his face surprisingly raised his fingers in a V for victory sign. These are highly evocative images which point to the direction a new political wind is blowing in the country.