Bull's Eye

The Indian hawks want a pre-emptive strike against Pakistan. The American hawks encourage them. The Indian hawks think a strike will end cross-border terrorism. In fact, it would end India's potential to balance China. After a war, both India and Pakistan would look like banana republics. The world could easily denuclearise them. America would instal a military presence in the subcontinent. China would protest only for public consumption. US hawks have a deep understanding with China. A denuclearised South Asia would leave China supreme in Asia.

The Indian doves would accept a settlement with Pakistan by making the LoC—with minor adjustments—into an international border. Cross-border terrorism would end. Trade would increase. Kashmir would continue to simmer. But without international support, the Kashmiris would be helpless. China's military pacts with Pakistan and Bangladesh would continue. The recent Fernandes visit to Beijing suggests that India itself might start defence cooperation with China. America would protest only for public consumption. China's influential partners in America, the neo-conservatives who dominate US policymaking, would be pleased. Minus a war threat, India and Pakistan would be compelled to abandon or freeze their nuclear programmes. This, again, would leave China supreme in Asia. War or peace, it's Hobson's choice.

Instead, India can cut through the tangled web woven by America and China to settle directly with Pakistan. The settlement would allow all segments of undivided Kashmir to choose India, Pakistan or independence. This would be accompanied by the precondition that subsequently Kashmir would be part of a permanent arrangement—with India and Pakistan to have joint defence and a common market. President Musharraf suggests a denuclearised South Asia. Rather, India and Pakistan should jointly provide South Asia with a nuclear umbrella. PM Vajpayee has ruled out a confederation. But events may surprise us all.

It's not guns, it's not gold,
That makes one brave, makes one bold,
Unbending heart alone may
Save freedom from disarray.