Bull's Eye

Subsequently, there was a major terrorist attack on the Tanda army camp by unidentified terrorists. Miraculously, it stopped short of becoming as serious as the December 13 attack on Parliament. One brigadier died and several generals narrowly escaped. The cream of the Northern Command, including the army commander, could have been eliminated. Much later, it also became known that while the PM was in China, pla troops encroached into Arunachal Pradesh. Within days, the euphoria following Vajpayee's visit vanished as both nations aired differences. Would the PM's host, Hu Jintao, have timed the encroachment this way?

George Fernandes and L.K. Advani ascribed the Tanda camp attack not to Pakistan but to elements determined "to derail the peace process". They didn't identify these elements. A Hindustan Times editorial zeroed in on "rogue elements in the Pakistan army and the isi" for the attack. The editorial too did not identify the source of power of these rogue elements that challenge the Pakistan government.

Meanwhile, the Indo-Pakistan peace process reached new heights with the visit of Pakistan's leader of the opposition, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, president of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). He spoke of lasting reconciliation. The maulana is the patron of the Taliban and several jehadi outfits. His changed attitude confused political pundits. Was he impelled by an overriding desire to expel American influence? But the terrorist attacks during his visit would hardly have helped his mission. Moreover, hardcore elements of the mma in Pakistan were baying for his blood.

There may be a simpler explanation. The situation on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border is rapidly changing. Pashtuns on both sides are chafing over Pakistan's interference in Afghanistan. Afghan and Pakistani forces have clashed on the border. These are signs of a paradigm change. It could result in a greater Afghanistan, incorporating Pakistan's nwfp. Or, an independent Pashtunistan that would divide both Pakistan and Afghanistan. As this column said on March 10, the Pashtuns in quest for independence "could stop fighting for the ISI and start fighting for themselves". If that happens, there will be major hiccups in both Pakistan and China.