An unpopular government rules India because no alternative is in sight. This gives the government an opportunity to refashion politics. The chances are ...
Either through design or division, the BJP is now moving on two tracks. On one track run its links with Mayawati, which are not finally severed. Her kind remarks about Advani were reinforced by her decision to contest the coming assembly polls alone. That would deny Dalit votes to the Congress and help the BJP. It is possible therefore that the BJP and the BSP could reunite before the next general elections. The BSP defectors are non-Dalits. So her votebank and future utility remain intact.
On the other track, BJP's covert support to Mulayam Singh Yadav has become overt. Mayawati correctly asserted that the BJP decision to issue a whip against Mulayam indicated that a BSP split had been assured. An editorial in the RSS mouthpiece, Panchajanya, extolling Mulayam, clearly indicates that one section of the BJP now supports him.
BJP leaders now appear to be scurrying around political ant-heaps, created by their interactions with Mulayam and Mayawati. But these ant-heaps could grow to political mountains. A BJP alliance with Mayawati denotes forward caste cooperation with Dalits. Such consolidation of Hindu votes would marginalise the Muslims. That would help create an anti-Muslim, anti-Pakistan roadmap for the government.
Muslims and backward castes were natural allies of Dalits. But Kanshi Ram's decline and Mayawati's ascent changed that. Kanshi Ram drew Dalits towards Buddhism. Mayawati's election symbol carried the slogan, 'Haathi nahi, Ganesh hai/Brahma, Vishnu, Mahesh hai!' Music to RSS ears! A BJP alliance with Mulayam could revive the forward caste-Muslim alliance that characterised Congress under Nehru. Muslims, like Brahmins, have been rulers. They share class empathy. Such an alliance presupposes settlement of the Ayodhya dispute. At the international level, it would facilitate an accord with Pakistan. That presupposes a Kashmir settlement. The future of South Asia may hinge on these alliances.
A third option, to unite Muslims and Dalits under the BJP umbrella, is theoretically possible. But that appears far-fetched. It would require a breadth of vision that the party has never displayed. Instead, the BJP tacitly endorses mafia politics sleaze. As CM, Mayawati staunchly supported Amar Mani Tripathi who is being investigated in a murder case. As CM, Mulayam has made him his staunchest ally. These are the alternative allies over which BJP leaders fight each other!