Bull's Eye

Now the LTTE watches from the sidelines as Sri Lanka's president and PM hold peace talks. This piquant situation resulted from a mountain of mistakes. An ancient split among Sinhalese politicians culminated in a competitive bashing of Tamils. India, understandably, sympathised with the Tamils. Indira Gandhi shortsightedly started to train Tamil militants. Rajiv foolishly intervened in Sri Lanka, sending a peacekeeping force to contain the very Tamils trained by us. India became too clever by half. It tried containing the ltte but at the same time using it for leverage in Lanka.

In the mid-'90s, Chandrika Kumaratunga had genuinely attempted a settlement with the ltte. Inexplicably, the LTTE seemed disinterested in talking to her. The dialogue never progressed beyond procedure.

After 2001, Prime Minister Wickremesinghe resumed peace talks. Norway, with US blessing, acted as facilitator. Wickremesinghe also ignored ltte violations of the ceasefire. He remained mute while the Tigers steadily spread into government-controlled areas. All this led to Kumaratunga sacking three ministers. She imposed Emergency, then withdrew it. Now she seeks national consensus but might face elections.

Over the years, the LTTE has grown into a leading global terrorist outfit. It's deep in narcotics. It has interactions with Al Qaeda, the Taliban, jehadis, ISI, Burmese generals and Chinese triads. It has a navy with a dozen vessels operating from Myanmar to carry arms and drugs. The LTTE uses routes through South China, Myanmar and Thailand. It has powerful gangs in Toronto. It has been a major distributor of drugs to Europe from Myanmar and Afghanistan. It is ruled as ruthlessly as the Khmer Rouge.

An independent Eelam could offer naval facilities to any major power hostile to India. That would destroy South Asian security and jeopardise vital sea routes in the Indian Ocean. On present reckoning, there is no prospect of an early peace in Sri Lanka. The island's crisis could suck South Asia into its own major crisis.

What, then, is the solution? America has failed to create the New World Order required desperately for world peace. India can take the lead, create a New Regional Order. The confederation in South Asia and the federation within its nation-states could resolve crises in Kashmir, the NWFP, Sri Lanka and other troublespots. To realise this, Prime Minister Vajpayee must formulate a grand, visionary agenda. He should even consider concessions to obtain Pakistan's consent. To begin with, both nations could start nuclear cooperation. They could offer a joint nuclear umbrella to saarc partners, affecting thereby global power equations.

Or, they could sit back and helplessly watch South Asia disintegrate.