The October poll prediction made last week in this column has gone wrong. The polls will be in April-May, perhaps even in March. The prediction was based ...
But these are unconventional times. The BJP strategists are street-smart. They have access to the best marketing brains in the corporate world. The stakes in the coming polls are inordinately high. If this column's prediction was wrong, the premise on which it was based could also be wrong. So let's play the devil's advocate and consider the possibility of the BJP winning a landslide.
In a TV interview, BJP general secretary Pramod Mahajan outlined his party's reasoning. In 24 out of the 26 states there will be no assembly polls accompanying the Lok Sabha poll. The election will therefore assume a presidential character. It will be Vajpayee vs Sonia. Worse, it could be Vajpayee vs a question mark. This will be uppermost in the voter's mind when he presses the electronic button. In the event, people will vote overwhelmingly for Vajpayee. The BJP and the NDA therefore could sweep the polls.
To further strengthen Mahajan's argument, preliminary talks with Pakistan will be held in February. If in February a date is set for a summit meeting with Musharraf, the psychological pressure on voters to strengthen Vajpayee's hand could prove irresistible. That seems to be the BJP's logic.
But will it work? Will voters in the states where the BJP has little presence support candidates backed by Vajpayee? Last week, this column had differentiated a feelgood factor from a mighty wave to discount this possibility. But is it possible that a silent wave has been assured to the BJP for it to contemplate a landslide?
If experience has taught us anything, it is that the power of the media should never be underestimated. By its sheer volume and one-dimensional onslaught, the media can batter public consciousness into unquestioning compliance. That's what big business is all about. In the propaganda field, huge quantity can defeat good quality. Witness the worldwide Princess Diana phenomenon. A wayward, confused and troubled creature became a goddess. Or consider Harry Potter. Or even Madonna whose book is outselling all others.
Time will tell whether the BJP wins a landslide, or whether conventional wisdom prevails for a disappointing result. The only thing that is certain is that this is no time to be certain.