Bull's Eye

Is the Indian government being dumb or devious on Kashmir? It ignores the larger picture. Kashmir is no ordinary dispute. The British created the dispute to perpetuate the Partition. Pakistan's then army chief General Gracey allowed 'raiders' to invade Kashmir. A British army officer arbitrarily declared Gilgit part of Pakistan-held Kashmir. Lord Mountbatten prevailed on Indian leaders to accept a ceasefire that prevented Indian troops from overrunning Kashmir. The British manipulated Nehru and Jinnah like puppets. Kashmir has become the very symbol of the Partition and Indo-Pak relations. Even the British could not have imagined that the dispute they created would outlive its utility to them.

The Indian government wants improvement in Indo-Pak relations to facilitate a Kashmir settlement. President Musharraf wants a Kashmir settlement to resolve Indo-Pak differences. The late Chaudhary Charan Singh, with robust peasant wisdom, often said: "For crossing a ditch, you don't move step by step—you take a leap!" Kashmir is more than a ditch. It is a chasm.

Musharraf is a man in a hurry. Time is running out for him. The world watches Iran and North Korea for Bush's next adventure. But that might well occur in Northwest Pakistan. America must take on Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda before the latter stage another 9/11.

Probably Musharraf understands this. This might explain why he reached out to Benazir and Nawaz Sharif. Musharraf released Benazir's husband Asif Zardari from jail. He telephoned Nawaz Sharif to commiserate over the latter's absence from his father's funeral. Musharraf obtained an unscheduled meeting with President Bush on December 4. At the same time, he's apparently closing ranks with Pakistani moderates to face some big challenge.

That challenge would come if America made Pakistan the staging ground for its all-out war against Al Qaeda. Last week, Pakistani generals claimed there was no Al Qaeda in Waziristan. Right. Probably it is further northeast near Chitral. The capturing of Al Qaeda leaders and their hand-over to America could explode the crisis to dimensions endangering the integrity of Pakistan. In the event, Musharraf would like a friendly India that can be trusted. That might explain his urgency to settle Kashmir. A Kashmir settlement would allow Pakistan to proceed to the next step. That would be to show the green light to America for starting full-fledged operations against Al Qaeda.

Last week, visiting Pakistan Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz told Indian editors: "Pakistan is neither a fragile state, nor a failed state." Does this indicate an aggressive or nervous Pakistan?

(Puri can be reached at rajinderpuri2000@yahoo.com)