Bull's Eye

Is the BJP crisis really over? Will L.K. Advani demit the office of party president in December? Consider these facts.

Advani announced in Chennai his decision to quit in December after the Bihar polls. At the conclusion of his address, he took a swipe at the RSS, advising it to stop meddling in BJP affairs. If he was quitting, why the parting kick? Plain petulance? Could be. Genuine concern for the party's future? Ho-ho-ho! Or was he simply buying time and has no intention of quitting?

Advani said a new president would be chosen to lead the party. But unlike the past, this time he did not specify the generation next leaders. Does he hope for their support during the critical days ahead? Last week, at a meeting of party general secretaries, no one endorsed his criticism of the RSS. None asked him to continue beyond December. But don't be fooled. The wannabes have eyes glued on the main chance. Nobody will show their cards till the RSS decides the successor. Once that is decided, new perspectives could quickly emerge.

There could be big hiccups before December. The Supreme Court's ruling on the dissolution of the Bihar assembly is expected by the month-end. If it contains strictures suggesting malafide intent, the consequences could be huge. It could even lead to a mid-term general election.

After all, Governor Buta Singh alone was not responsible. The Union cabinet fully endorsed his advice. It decided to wake up President A.P.J. Kalam at midnight during his visit to Moscow to get the dissolution order signed. How will the PM escape responsibility?

But if the Bihar polls are held, what then? Uma Bharati will be the BJP's star campaigner. She is firmly with Murli Manohar Joshi. So are a large number of the Bihar BJP leaders. A poll victory could revive Advani's claim to continue beyond December. So if these leaders want the BJP to win, they must make sure that Advani is so distanced from the campaign that his continuance, even till December, becomes untenable. Theoretically, they could sabotage the elections to diminish Advani. That won't happen. So, Bihar could set the stage for infighting leading to a split. Even if Advani gets a rump of the BJP, he could attempt teaming up with the NDA to exclude the RSS-backed faction.

Can the BJP actually split? Perhaps it is wishful thinking. Perhaps Advani will quit. But on present reckoning, he would go kicking and screaming. So don't bet on anything. December is far, far away.

(Puri can be reached at rajinderpuri2000@yahoo.com)