Forget the Bush excesses during his first term. Forget our PM's impotence these past months. This meeting's impact will outlast the careers of both leaders.
By the time this appears in print US President Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh would have met. Regardless of how the nuclear issue goes, this meeting will be historic. It will not be George Bush meeting Manmohan Singh. It will be the US President meeting the Indian PM. So forget the Bush excesses during his first term. Forget our PM’s impotence these past months. This meeting’s impact will outlast the careers of both leaders. Why?
For several decades the world has been dominated by America and China. Their influence was negative. China’s military establishment and US big business thrived in partnership. One pursued power, the other pursued profit. Consequently, America and China patronised terrorism, narcotics and subversion. There is overwhelming evidence to prove this. To give one example, Osama bin Laden interacted with both governments several times. With cynical disregard, both nations abandoned principle in pursuit of immediate gain.
Have things changed? If so, thank technology. A nuclear bomb can be manufactured in a garage and carried in a suitcase. Before 9/11 there were five terrorist sites on the web. Now there are 45,000. Half a dozen people can form a terrorist strike force. They may choose any cause. They need no guidance. Nobody can control them all. Not Osama, not CIA, not PLA.
That is why, today, the most urgent task before America and China is to destroy the Frankenstein’s monster they created. That is why inside America security considerations dictate policy more than business interests. That is why inside China the government has started to grapple with democratic reform. There is simply too much at stake. It would be daft for governments capable of leading the world economically to endanger everything by needless adventurism.
That is why President Bush, in his second term, talks about reducing dependence on oil and finding alternate energy sources. That is why, bluster apart, the neo-conservative script of launching wars to control oil seems to have been abandoned. That is why China frowns on nuclear violations by the very same Iran which received centrifuges courtesy Dr A.Q. Khan, courtesy China.
America and China still form an alliance. But hopefully both are reconciled now to a multipolar world. Russia, Europe, Japan, India and eventually Brazil, too, will be conceded their legitimate roles. America might be the locomotive pulling the train. It cannot be the whole train.That is why the Bush-Manmohan Singh meeting is important. It could signal a paradigm shift in world politics.
(Puri can be reached at rajinderpuri2000@yahoo.com)