Bull's Eye

According to a briefing by foreign minister of state Anand Sharma, the discussion centred onKashmi -- before the government's impending talks with President Musharraf. According to a correspondent briefed by him, "the nuclear deal was not talked about at all".

That immediately raised one's antenna. The nuclear deal was not mentioned, and that, during discussions on foreign policy? Strange! Could it be that the real worry is the nuclear deal, that Pakistan was a red herring to mislead Left Front allies? Or does the dialogue with Pakistan herald some imminent commitment by government veering away from present policy? This seems unlikely. The talks have not reached that stage.

But the Indo-US nuclear deal could create a crisis for the government much sooner. The BJP opposes official policy on Pakistan. The Left Frontdoesn't. Therefore, even opposition by the BJP on Pakistan would not threaten thegovernment's majority. But both the Left Front and the BJP are opposed to the nuclear deal. Their opposition jointly would bring the government down.

Up to now, the Left Front has provided only bluster on the nuclear deal. But consider this: the petition in the Supreme Court by Trinamool MP Dinesh Trivedi against the Office of Profit law is pending. It should come up soon. The case seems strong. Both Parliament and the President have formally accepted that the present law violates legal norms and needs amendment. It is therefore difficult to see how the court can uphold the law. If the law is struck down, a substantial number of MPs from the Left Front too would be unseated. In the event, would the Left Front continue to support the nuclear deal which it in fact bitterly opposes?

It is possible therefore that by his luncheon discussion with the BJP, the PM was buying insurance. The BJP in government had no differences with the Congress on the nuclear deal, on Pakistan or on economic reforms. The Left Front opposes both economic reforms and the nuclear deal. That might explain the Congress overture to the BJP. But a lunchwon't satisfy the BJP. It would want a share in power. That would imply major political realignment. Neither Congress nor BJP leaders appear big enough to attempt that. ThePM's lunch therefore could be wasted.

(Puri can be reached at rajinderpuri2000@yahoo.com)