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Musharraf has played all his cards. He has painted himself into a corner. In the ultimate analysis, he was never reconciled to India.
Musharraf accused India of destabilising Balochistan. He blamed America for protecting anti-Pakistan terrorists in Afghanistan and Islamabad. He referred to Baitullah Mehsud, who masterminded the killing of Chinese workers in Pakistan. Musharraf, therefore, was speaking for the common Sino-Pak interests. By criticising the ISI, was America speaking against those interests? Neither the US, nor for that matter Iran, would relish Chinese control of Pakistan’s Gwadar port on the Balochistan coast, which China is at present developing. A reluctance to even indirectly confront China could explain the CIA’s delay in accusing the ISI. The US-China proxy struggle in Pakistan is therefore no longer hidden.
So where does that leave Musharraf? Consider his situation.
Prime Minister Gilani may be ignored because he is Asif Zardari’s frontman. Zardari has joined hands with Nawaz Sharif and threatens Musharraf with impeachment. He can take on Musharraf. But can he take on the army? That depends on the influence the US can exercise on army chief General Kiyani. To fight the war on terror, the US and the Pakistan army need each other. But a clear conflict of interests is emerging between them. America thinks Pakistan is dragging its feet in confronting the jehadis in Afghanistan. The Pakistan army thinks America is deliberately soft on the anti-Pakistan terrorists inside Pakistan. In the midst of this standoff, Kiyani has announced that the army will not interfere in politics. By implication, he is advising Musharraf to resign gracefully.
A hard-headed professional like Kiyani would not risk an adventure and displease America knowing that war could disintegrate Pakistan. Before the impeachment process hardened, the possibility of the army bailing out Musharraf by escalating ceasefire violations was not ruled out. Now at best the army would like to see Musharraf not humiliated.
Musharraf has played all his cards. He has painted himself into a corner. In the ultimate analysis, he was never reconciled to India. His suave exterior masked uncompromising hostility. He is an ideological Pakistani. He belongs to a Mohajir family that migrated to Pakistan when he was four. As army chief, he avoided meeting Vajpayee during the latter’s Lahore trip. He did not want to salute an Indian PM. That should tell us all.
(Puri can be reached at rajinderpuri2000@yahoo.com)