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If Pakistan seeks survival with its present borders intact, it must confederate with Afghanistan.
Mounting civilian deaths in Afghanistan, including those of women and children, have alienated president Hamid Karzai from the public. He is also not too happy with the US troops in the country. After Manmohan Singh’s visit to Afghanistan in 2005, it was speculated that Karzai had favoured replacement of NATO forces by Indian troops there. It is not known if this wish was revived in Karzai’s talks with Dr Singh during his Delhi visit early January.
Induction of Indian troops in Afghanistan could certainly be considered, but under stringent preconditions. First, NATO troops must withdraw. Only Pakistani, Indian and Afghan troops might then be deployed to counter the Taliban. Indian troops in southern Afghanistan could complement the efforts of the Pakistan army in NWFP. Would Pakistan agree to this? Most unlikely! This makes a US surge in Afghanistan an expected reality.
Whichever troops fight the Taliban, it is imperative that a clearly conceived peace package, which might be offered in negotiations that eventually follow, is in place. America has shown neither the imagination nor the insight necessary for formulating such a package. India and Afghanistan could fill this lacuna.
First, America failed to divide the Taliban from the Al-Qaeda immediately after 9/11. It refused, then, to accept the Taliban’s offer to surrender Osama bin Laden to any country other than itself. Secondly, it is unrealistic for America to attempt imposing a western-style democracy in Afghanistan abruptly. The Pashtuns are fiercely independent. They will not accept such foreign interference. The world’s prime concern should be to separate the Taliban from global terrorism. That might be accomplished if the Pashtuns were allowed to unite and to rule themselves through their traditional system, through periodically held jirgas or tribal gatherings.
To facilitate this, the disputed Durand Line Treaty must be resolved. It elapsed after 100 years in 1993. By its terms, Pakistan’s tribal belt was to be returned to Afghanistan. Pakistan refused to comply. The Pashtuns are known to seek cross-border Pashtun unity. If international borders are not to be altered, this can be achieved only through creating a Pakistan-Afghanistan confederation. If Pakistan seeks survival with its present borders intact, it must confederate with Afghanistan. Otherwise, despite American opposition, the Taliban could conceivably drive Pakistan towards self-destruction.
(Puri can be reached at rajinderpuri2000@yahoo.com)