From Prosperity To Protest

Punjab was India’s pioneering state in agriculture. The state symbolised the country’s green revolution success in the mid-1960s with high yielding varieties of wheat and later rice raising productivity levels. This success helped the nation to free itself from the PL-480 food aid. The state’s agricultural growth surged at an unprecedented 5.7 per cent from 1971-72 to 1985-86, double the rate of the all-India average agricultural growth rate of 2.31 per cent during the same period.  Punjab’s dizzying success in agriculture was mainly due to four factors: first massive public investment in irrigation, second the introduction of high yielding variety seeds, third increased rural connectivity by constructing all-weather roads, and fourth the linking of agri- markets with the farmers.

Unfortunately, religious extremism in the mid-1980s created havoc in Punjab. The surge in grain production in the state dramatically declined to touch the country’s average of 3 per cent from 1986-87 to 2004-05. In the following period, the downturn in agriculture became worse in the state. While Indian agriculture grew, Punjab declined. From 2005-06 to 2014-15, the agricultural growth rate of Punjab touched its nadir at 1.61 per cent per annum, less than half the all-India average growth rate of 3.5 per cent in the same period.  Terrorism and drugs are the two explanations provided for Punjab’s decline in agricultural growth rate. But the truth is that Punjab’s agriculture had hit a plateau given falling water table and declining soil fertility. Diversifying from grains to horticulture, fruits and vegetables, maize and other crops is the only way out. Paddy, which requires a massive intake of water is unfit for cultivation in Punjab given water scarcity.

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The election of Captain Amarinder Singh-led Congress government in Punjab in 2017 raised hopes of a turnaround. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has been a setback. Given farmer protests against the three new agricultural laws passed by the NDA government in the monsoon session of Parliament, the prosperity of Punjab has once again been stymied by political factors. According to the Railway Ministry estimate, the Railways have lost Rs 1,670 crore until 16 November 2020 due to rail roko by protestors for over a month.

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