Marooned In Majuli?

Intense speculation, political jockeying/lobbying—all spread across primetime news on TV channels and banner headlines in local papers till after a week the BJP retained Assam in this summer’s assembly elections, the outcome declared on May 2. And then, a smooth transition of power. Sarbananda Sonowal, the 59-year-old outgoing chief minister, walked out gracefully, even showing the way to the stage to his deputy of five years on the day he was sworn in as the next CM. Himanta Biswa Sarma—the go-to guy of the BJP in the Northeast, and the Congress on Tarun Gogoi’s watch before he switched sides—took oath, thanked and praised Sonowal, and declared that his predecessor will be a margdarshak, a guide. The dust has thus settled over the question of who would be chief minister, and Sarma has hit the ground running.

But a question, a corollary to the bigger one, has remained unanswered. What’s next for Sonowal? He submits an impressive resume: an influential leader of the All Assam Students Union (AASU), progressing to be a politician with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) that he joined in 1999, fighting against the controversial Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunal) Act, which the Supreme Court scrapped subsequently in 2005. He then aligned with the BJP, became a parliamentarian and was rewarded with the Union sports ministry before the party’s 2016 assembly elections victory in Assam that catapulted him to the chief minister’s post. Sonowal was the natural choice because of his clean image and the ‘Jatiya Nayak’ title conferred on him endearingly by the public for his persistent prodding against the illegal migrant law. Besides, he had the confidence of the BJP top brass, including the Prime Minister.

For his part, Sonowal dripped a foot soldier’s humility when asked about his plans after Sarma was anointed chief minister. “I am ready to take whatever responsibility the party entrusts me with,” he said. He has maintained this line since he lost his job—reportedly contextualising the leadership change with an epical quote from the Mahabharata’s Bheesma that a king must stand for the country. The two-time MLA representing the river island of Majuli has since become virtually incommunicado.

Sarma had given indications about Sonowal’s future. Reports quoting him at a press conference in Delhi earlier this June state that he believed the central leadership would take a decision and that BJP president J.P. Nadda had, during a meeting, said Sonowal will be given a new responsibility. But in what capacity, the CM didn’t elaborate.

Like he said before that Sonowal would be a margdarshak, Sarma pointed out that the party could draw on his predecessor’s experience as chief minister and Union minister of state (independent charge) of sports and youth affairs from 2014 to 2016. Then again, he stopped short of saying how a leader of Sonowal’s stature could be gainfully employed, rather than letting him be a showpiece legislator. “There is no harm or shame in remaining an MLA, but it is true that having been a chief minister it may be easier said than done,” says a senior Assam minister, who thinks Sonowal would have to be rehabilitated and the Centre must be seized of this.  “If he was to remain in Assam he would have been made a minister at least. That hasn’t happened,  indicating different plans,” he asserts.

There are two slots that could be Sonowal’s if he wishes—president of the state BJP since the incumbent chief is a minister now, or a Rajya Sabha seat, which is vacant. Then again, the buzz about an imminent Modi ministry reshuffle has reignited speculation about Sonowal’s rehabilitation. A BJP leader says he expects Sonowal’s return to Delhi as minister. “The PM had gone on record that Sonowal proved his efficiency as a central minister and regretted that he had to let him go to become chief minister,” he says. The Union government has two ministers from the Northeast—Kiren Rijiju of Arunachal Pradesh, who has succeeded Sonowal in sports, and junior food processing minister Rameswar Teli of Assam. Will Sonowal get a look in? Well, promises and praises in politics come with asterisks.

By Dipankar Roy in Guwahati