Sasikala’s re-entry could upset the AIADMK’s well-laid plans
Tamil Nadu’s political canvas is strewn with symbols of various forms and sizes—statues of past leaders, their samadhis visited mandatorily on their death anniversaries and even their former homes. Sasikala Natarajan’s return to Chennai brought two more symbols into focus—the AIADMK’s flag and the party coloured long shawl worn around her neck.
In defiance of threats and police complaints she rode back to Chennai in a car that sported the AIADMK’s flag on the bonnet and the shawl remained in place whenever she stepped out to pray in temples or at AIADMK’s founder MGR’s residence in a Chennai suburb. The two other symbolic places she had planned to visit—the samadhis of MGR and Jayalalalithaa and the Poes Garden residence, now converted into a memorial—had been hurriedly closed down by the AIADMK government.
That response by the ruling party only betrayed a collective nervousness about Sasikala’s political impact. During her day-long road trip, Sasikala too left no one in doubt about her intentions. “I would ensure the AIADMK cadres remain united so our common enemy (DMK) does not return to power,” she declared. But the AIADMK spurned her overtures outright, even dubbing her as the B-team of the DMK with plans to erode the anti-DMK votes that naturally gravitate towards the AIADMK.
“The AIADMK is confident that Sasikala would be able to increase the 6 per cent vote share of the AMMK by just a few notches. The abiding hold of the AIADMK’s ‘two leaves’ symbol and the emergence of Palaniswami as a leader in his own right has left Sasikala with little room to manoeuvre. AIADMK leaders are in no mood to surrender their new-found freedom and any patch up with her is unlikely before the assembly elections,” says political commentator Raveenthran Thuraisamy.
Sasikala’s supporters argue that the tremendous reception accorded to her, not by just cadres of the AMMK (floated by her nephew T.T.V. Dhinakaran) but also those from the AIADMK prove that she is viewed as Jayalalithaa’s natural political heir. “EPS and OPS must see this reality and make peace with Chinnamma,” says ex-minister Senthamizhan, a die-hard Sasikala fan.
But the ruling dispensation is in no mood to patch up and demonstrated its opposition to Sasikala by ordering attachment of properties of her two relatives convicted along with her in the corruption case. The message it sent out was loud and clear—Sasikala’s ill-gotten properties identified by the trial court in the corruption case too could be attached any time. By refusing to leave the door even slightly ajar the AIADMK appears to have embarked on a dangerous electoral journey, already saddled by ten years of incumbency and the absence of a charismatic leader like Jayalalithaa.
AIADMK leaders, however, are confident that the strong alliance they would be forging with the BJP, PMK, DMDK and other parties would counter the ‘Sasi effect’. Palaniswami also announced a few populist measures ahead of her release, like writing off co-operative loans to farmers and withdrawing police cases filed during the Jallikattu protests. “Wait and watch, there will be more such announcements before the election dates. And our manifesto will add to the buzz,” says fisheries minister D. Jayakumar.
But neutral observers feel that the impact of Sasikala’s influence on her Thevar community, which has been traditionally pro-AIADMK, could determine the results in at least 50 seats in south Tamil Nadu and the Thanjavur delta region. “For this reason alone the AIADMK leadership should have at least started negotiations with AMMK leaders to arrive at a mid-ground rather than outright reject any understanding with Sasikala. If the two parties even have a seat-sharing arrangement that would pose a tough challenge to the DMK front,” says S. Ramesh of Thuglak.
The widening rift has naturally enthused the DMK which feels that the party would stand to benefit the most from Sasikala’s return to the state’s political scene. “The contest which was EPS versus Stalin has now become EPS versus Sasikala versus Stalin. They will be fighting more with one another rather than train their guns on the DMK, which suits us admirably,” says DMK legilsator M. Subramanian. Unless the BJP compels both sides to sit down and repair the rift, Sasikala’s arrival can only undermine the AIADMK’s bid for a third term in power.
By G.C. Shekhar in Chennai