Show The Way, Big Brother

Living as perennial adversaries, India and Pakistan are continually treading the razor’s edge. The ever-present danger now seems tinged with the threat of an impending doom, what with the induction of nuclear weapons into the South Asian equation. And despite a great deal of ‘informed’ expert opinion, the threat of a nuclear holocaust in the subcontinent cannot be dismissed on the premise that nuclear deterrence always works. If deterrence is meant to circumvent fear, it only serves to accentuate it in the mind of the adversary. Thus, it slides into the vicious circle of an unending arms race.

But a conventional or nuclear war isn’t imminent at present, for while politicians concerned about home-image may display habitual belligerence, launching a war would be self-defeating. The reasons for this are that India has thrown in an enormous number of combat soldiers-over half-a-million of them in the Valley-which deprives it of the locus of control to release them and be able to face an all-out war against Pakistan. Whereas, in terms of quantum of soldiers deployed in Indian-held Kashmir, there is an uneven balance in favour of India, this superiority is likely to be neutralised with the presence of the mujahideen. Therefore, the Indian notion of limited war, while theoretically sound, is not feasible in practical terms. No war can fully be contained, its horizons often expand rapidly. For Pakistan, the present situation is favourable as it is achieving good dividends in Kashmir at minimal costs. India is profusely bleeding both in terms of war casualties as well as a loss of its material resources. It is unlikely that India will continue to bear such a high-cost confrontation for long. All revolutionary wars since World War II have had a pattern: when the induction of forces crosses an optimal number-the magic figure of half-a-million-low morale and battle fatigue sets in, making it difficult to sustain the aggression. India’s progressively reaching that point of desperation and fatigue.

India, being the stronger actor, must show the requisite humility to defuse tension and reorient its attitude so that a climate of real peace prevails. A higher vision is the imperative-India must give up the atoot ang refrain and Pakistan must get over its fixation with the UN resolutions. Simply because the ground realities have changed, and bold steps are needed to solve the core issue of Kashmir. War can only come through a failure of human wisdom. #