Time To Reach Out

MY journey to Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in June was an attempt at a personal discovery of these countries. There has been much talk about the importance of Central Asia to India after the break-up of the Soviet Union. It has been averred that the Central Asian republics are important to us strategically; that they can be responsive partners in economic endeavours to our mutual benefit; that having satisfactory relations with them would consolidate the forces of modernity and socio-religious tolerance in our region and that a substantive relationship with them could provide additional useful linkages for us with Russia and China. The second objective of my journey was to see to what extent these assessments have found expression in our Central Asian policies and to what extent these are shared by our Central Asian neighbours.

Despite the changes and democratisation which have occurred in these republics, their power structures are still dominated by the old members of the communist party and its bureaucracy. There is no explosion of liberties or liberal processes in these societies.

We in India tend to perceive Central Asia as a collective Islamic entity. The ground realities are more complex. The region consists of five countries: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. These countries cover an area roughly a little larger than India, with a population of between 40 and 45 million, out of whom nearly 20 million people live in Uzbekistan, a little over 17 million in Kazakhstan and the rest in the other three countries. Kazakhstan's territory alone is equivalent to nearly 85 per cent of India's area.

The majority of the population of these countries is Muslim, though they are divided on ethnic lines. These divergent ethnic groups often spill across borders. For instance, Uzbeks can be found in Kazakhstan, Tajiks in Uzbekistan and so on. All the countries are engaged in re-establishing their respective national identities and safeguarding their territorial boundaries.

This region is going through a process of profound transition. Of the five Central Asian republics, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are the most important in terms of size and demography, economic resources and defence capacities. The politics and the policies of these countries have an inevitable impact on the other three countries. Despite the break up of the USSR, the power structures here are still dominated by officials of the previous communist regimes which have now assumed new 'liberal' national identities. Each country has adopted new constitutions and has a presidential form of government. Various political parties have come into existence. However, the dominant political party in each of these countries led by Presidents Karimov (Uzbekistan), Nazar-Baiev (Kazakhstan) and Akaieve (Kyrgyzstan) rule the roost. The legislatures, the council of ministers, and the judiciary have a secondary role, and the media is in an embryonic stage. Though a multi-party system exists, dissent is not allowed beyond a threshold determined by the governments.

The countries in the region are liberalising and privatising their economies. They are keen on foreign participation in terms of manpower, technology and investments. However, limitations of the previous linkage with the Soviet economic system have made the process of economic restructuring and reforms slow. Under the centralised Soviet system the economic and infrastructural arrangements for this region were confederational; each one provided inputs to the mainland Russian Federation and its economy.

None are industrially and financially self-sufficient. Their main objectivenow is to remove these limitations and integrate into a homogeneous national economy.

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have enormous natural resources, minerals, oil and natural gas. International financial institutions have assessed Central Asia as the region which deserves focussed attention as a source of essential raw materials for sustaining the global economy in the beginning of the next century. Consequently, extensive interest is being shown by the US, Japan, Germany, South Korea, China, Turkey, Iran and even Pakistan in these countries.

The attitude of the Central Asian nations towards Pakistan should be of particular interest to India. They are attracted to Pakistan because of its Islamic identity. Since they wish to break free from their dependence on Russia and Iran for access to ports, they want normalcy in Afghanistan so that they can reach the ports of Karachi and Gwadar for international trade.

Though India began establishing multifaceted relations with all the Central Asian countries since 1992, these have not been translated into any specific programmes or projects. India's relations with this region are in limbo at present. Only eight or 10major Indian firms have shown interest in joint ventures here. Some beginnings have been made by Larsen & Toubro and the Tatas, which are engaged in the construction of hotels and a number of consumer goods manufacturing factories. The Ispat group of the Mittals has taken over the largest iron and steel factory at Karmet in Kazakhstan. The Hindujas have shown interest in developing the oil and natural gas resources in these countries, perhaps through their Iranian contacts. The ONGC has established an office in Almaty. Delegations from the Confederation of Indian Industry have visited these countries. The need now is to move beyond exploratory discussions to concrete projects.

The bilateral trade between India and these countries—$75 million in 1995—is less than the volume of trade practically of all the other Asian countries trading with this region. There are also unexpected Indian presences there. The Hare Krishna movement is active in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. And a number of Sikhs from Afghanistan are involved in trade in these areas. My Central Asian interlocutors, both academic and official, repeatedly stressed their desire to expand economic, technological and educational ties with India, but they all felt that India didn't seem to be interested.

It is time India abandoned its lethargy about Central Asia. It must start looking at these countries as an integral part of the neighbourhood. India's policy should be predicated on the perception that multifaceted relations with these countries are essential for the security and stability of an integrated strategic region stretching from Central Asia to South-east Asia. New Delhi must show active interest in developing their economies and pursue projects of economic and technological cooperation not only to strengthen their economies, but also to gain their friendship so that their economic capacities can be of assistance to us. It must help develop the abundant energy and natural resources in the area so that in return for our inputs we are assured of supplies of these products for our economy. There are also prospects of cooperation with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in the fields of peaceful uses of nuclear energy and space technology. Baikonur, one of the world's biggest space stations is located in Kazakhstan.

It is lamentable that barring India, practically all the West Asian and Gulf countries and Pakistan have direct air links with Central Asia. The excuse given is that over-flying Afghanistan is dangerous. Not very convincing because all other airlines including the West European ones over-fly Afghanistan.

There has been a slack in the high level contacts between India and the Central Asian republics since former prime minister Narasimha Rao's visit there in 1993 and 1995. High level contacts must be revived. The July 10 visit of the deputy prime minister and foreign minister of Turkmenistan to India is a positive sign.

One of the last meetings I had in Central Asia was with the director of the Department of Asian Studies of the Al-Farabi University at Almaty in Kazakhstan. He said: "Though relations between us and India were good during the last 70 years due to your good contacts with the Soviet Union, it was not a relationship rooted in our common past which goes back nearly 2,500 years. We want to stop looking at you through the Russian prism; we should look directly into each others' eyes to know each other as we used to during the days of the Silk Route and the time when scholars like Ulugh Beg and Al-Farabi exchanged ideas with your savants and scholars." There is a resonance and responsiveness in Central Asia about us. We must ensure it does not stay unrequited. n