Apocalypse Now

IN smog-ridden Indonesia, it was a disaster waiting to happen. The authorities didn't admit the A-300 crash that killed all 234 on board was linked to the haze, but all knew there was a deathly blanket of smoke over Sumatra. The Air Garuda plane on a routine flight from Jakarta to Medan on September 26 apparently crashed into a mountain minutes before it was due to land and careened down a ravine—all in next to zero visibility. As the first 'real' tragedy caused by the smog that has engulfed southeast Asia, the crash ironically helped bring the doomsday scenario into sharp focus.

In Malaysia's Sarawak state, one of the worst hit spots where tall buildings are no longer visible, and all across Kuala Lumpur, Brunei, Singapore and parts of the Philippines and Thailand, people have been wheezing, coughing and complaining of other respiratory ailments. Malaysian hospitals have reported an upsurge in asthma attacks.

So what has caused the haze? The most common explanation is that out-of-control wildfires in the forests of Indonesia's Borneo and Sumatra islands have caused the thick smoke—an area of about 50,000 square miles is said to be on fire. The smoke is measured by the Air Pollutant Index (API), under which any reading over 100 is considered bad. The pollutants, mostly noxious, have led to a rush for air filters and air conditioners, but that has hardly solved the problem. Kuala Lumpur hovers between 180 and 350 on the API scale but in Sarawak, the level is well above 500—peaking briefly at 839. In Sarawak, visibility is reduced to as less as 10 metres, and a state of "haze emergency" is in effect, with schools closed, factories and construction work stopped. The town's mayor even distributes free masks to the few people who venture out on the streets.

Some environmentalists blame it on the weather-distorting El Nino effect and predict that with the onset of monsoons, the haze will disappear. Others say the disaster may have global implications in six months—and that the blaze might add to global warming. Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei accused Indonesia of allowing plantation companies to start the fires to clear land for cash crops. But man-made forest fires are the standard way to convert them to plantations. What has caused the problem, according to environmentalists, is the extent of the fire. For example, in the '60s, less than 10,000 hectares of forests were converted to estates; today, ten times that is considered an estate of average size in Indonesia.

If environmentalists are still hazy about the whole cause-and-effect chain in motion now, Malaysia's National Disaster Relief Management Committee, headed by information minister Dato Mohamed Rahmat, too has come up with one impractical suggestion after another—evacuating the million people living in an area of about 50,000 sq km, mostly in the rural, inaccessible tropical jungles of Sarawak to pouring water from the top of skyscrapers; the weather modification director at Malaysia's department of environment, Tung Nam Ping, even tried to create rain by sprinkling clouds with a salt solution and wash away the choking smog. But his rainmaking efforts brought only light 'acid' showers.

The "smog attack" is reminiscent of the fogs in London and New York in 1952, the impact of which was so bad that years later, people still suffered from respiratory diseases. There is no record of what is happening in the rural areas of Sarawak, where sometimes polling officers have to walk for miles after being dropped by helicopters to allow 20 people to cast their votes. What has made matters worse is the sudden flight of ministers and elected representatives to more salubrious climes at government expense. The key culprit is Sarawak chief minister Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud, who took flight in a private jet within days of announcing the "haze emergency". One elected representative left for an unscheduled boating holiday in China.

People are warned of respiratory diseases, and encouraged to wear paper masks to afford some protection—and prices for that have gone up from 16 US cents each to US $1.30 in the past four weeks. Countries like France, Australia and Canada have rushed advisors to help crack the problem, but, as one cabinet minister said, the framework to contain emergencies of this type is just not there. And given the bad taste left by Malaysian premier Mahathir Mohammed's recent pronouncements on the state of the world currency, for which he squarely blames the US, the unprepared response to the haze does look amateurish.

And if the haze cover continues for long, agriculture will be affected, and that could cause further dislocations. Many say the air over Kuala Lumpur is as bad as in Cairo and Mexico City. The American embassy allowed 75 embassy staff and their families to leave after they fell ill from the smog. Those remaining will be rotated in and out of the country to minimise health risks. But for a majority in Malaysia, there is no safehouse.