IND Vs AUS, Stats Preview: Can A Wounded Indian Unit Achieve The Impossible Hat-Trick In Australia?

It has to be the biggest Test rivalry of this millennium. The quality and the intensity of the contests, the competitiveness, the class of talent on display, the controversies on and off the field and the scorelines all make the Border-Gavaskar Trophy the greatest battle in red-ball cricket in the last quarter of a century. (More Cricket News)

From the epic series in 2001 which witnessed the great Dravid-Laxman partnership and an Indian victory after following on at the Eden Gardens and Harbhajan Singh’s magical spell in Chennai to Rahul Dravid’s brilliance in Adelaide in 2003, from the dustbowl at Wankhede in 2004 to India’s win at the WACA in 2008, from Australia’s 4-0 whitewash at home in 2011 to India returning the favour in 2013, from Steve O’Keefe’s 12-for and Steven Smith’s magnificent hundred in Pune to India’s winning streak in the last four series which included two wins on consecutive tours of Australia – the BGT is the new El-Classico of Test cricket!

As India and Australia get set to lock horns with one another in what promises to be another epic battle between the number 1 and 2 ranked Test teams in the world, we look at the likely team composition, the key players, the expected conditions and some numbers which may potentially define the contest.

INDIA

India have already achieved the impossible in Australia. No team from the sub-continent has ever beaten Australia in Australia in a Test series. India has done it – not once, but twice and that too on consecutive tours. Most experts and pundits would not have bet against them from achieving the hat-trick if not for what transpired at home in their last assignment. A 3-0 thrashing by New Zealand in their own backyard has dealt a severe blow to India’s confidence and morale ahead of the mega showdown against Australia.

However, it is not all doomsday for India. There is a school of thought which suggests that they might do better on the fast and bouncy tracks Down Under than on the slow, low, turning and unpredictable pitches at home. This thought does have some merit as long as the ball does not deviate off the wicket!

Who will partner Jaiswal at the top of the order?

Rohit Sharma’s absence from the series opener at Perth due to personal reasons is a massive blow for India. Not only will the team miss their captain but Rohit has notched up some fine numbers since he moved to the top of the order for India in 2018. He also put in some top-notch performances on their last tour in 2020-21, giving the team a solid start in Sydney and Brisbane.

Shubman Gill will also miss the Perth Test due to injury which essentially means that India will be without two of their best back-foot batters on what is potentially the fastest and the bounciest wicket in Australia. Gill was very impressive on India’s last tour aggregating 259 runs in three Tests which included two fifties. His 91 in the second innings laid the platform for India’s stunning series win at the Gabba.

KL Rahul is the likely candidate to open the innings along with Yashasvi Jaiswal. However, Rahul has been in and out of the Indian Test XI and does not boast of a great record in Australia – although he recorded a ton at the SCG in 2015, Rahul has failed in seven of his nine innings in the country. He has also been in poor form since 2022 with an average of just 25.7.

Jurel at number 6

India is likely to rope in Dhruv Jurel as a specialist batter at number 6. Jurel scored an under-pressure fifty in each inning (and notably from number 6) of the India-A encounter against Australia-A in Melbourne and has a solid technique and temperament. He has a good record in first-class cricket with an average of 48.9 in 21 matches. Jurel has played three Tests for India and produced a Player of the Match performance against England in Ranchi scoring tough runs under pressure in both innings.

Ashwin vs Jadeja

This is the million-dollar question for India. The think-tank has historically favoured Ravindra Jadeja in SENA but the choice will not be that straightforward this time around.

Since India’s last tour to Australia in December 2020, Ashwin has bagged 20 wickets in SENA in eight Tests at an average of 30.7. Jadeja, on the other hand, has picked 18 wickets in 10 matches in this time frame in SENA at an average of 33.4. Ashwin played a pivotal role in the series transformation at the MCG in 2020-21.

However, the most significant statistic is the off-spinner’s record against left-handers. No bowler in the history of Test cricket has dismissed more left-handed batters than Ashwin. His 268 wickets have come at an average of 19.7 apiece. Australia has three left-handers in their top 7 – Usman Khawaja, Travis Head and Alex Carey – and Ashwin has a brilliant record against each one of them. He has dismissed Khawaja 4 times in 8 innings at an average of 24.75 while getting Alex Carey out 5 times in 6 innings in just 40 deliveries. He has also dismissed Travis Head thrice in 11 innings.

Jadeja has been the more effective batter in SENA in this period with an average of around 30 which is more than double of Ashwin – which leaves India in a quandary – should they add depth to an already beleaguered batting line-up or should they play the match-ups which will be crucial in Australia?

A Test debut for Nitish Reddy

Nitish Kumar Reddy is set to make his Test debut in Perth after impressing in the T20I series against Bangladesh – Reddy, a hard-hitting batting all-rounder who bowls lively and accurate fast-medium pace - much in the mould of a Shardul Thakur – blasted a brilliant 74 off 34 deliveries while also picking two wickets in Delhi. He will add depth to the batting and fill in as the fourth seamer.

Rana over Krishna?

Harshit Rana might be the second Indian player making his Test debut in Perth on Friday. The tall right-arm fast has the ability to generate extra pace and bounce and is a hit-the-deck bowler – the kind that does well in Australia. Rana impressed for the Kolkata Knight Riders in the IPL and was amongst the top 5 wicket-takers of the season with 19 dismissals at a rate of 13.3! Rana has bagged 43 wickets in 10 first-class matches.

India Probable Playing XI: Yashasvi Jaiswal, KL Rahul, Devdutt Padikkal, Virat Kohli, Rishabh Pant, Dhruv Jurel, Nitish Kumar Reddy, R Ashwin, Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Siraj, Harshit Rana

AUSTRALIA

Australia haven’t had the best run in Test cricket in the last couple of years. They lost in India and drew the Ashes 2-2 in England. They looked vulnerable against Pakistan and lost at their bastion Gabba against a low-ranked West Indian unit. Their best performance was a 2-0 win in New Zealand in March, which was their last Test assignment of the year – this also means that Australia is slightly under-cooked for the marquee series as they have not played Test cricket in over eight months.

McSweeney to open

Nathan McSweeney will make his Test debut at Perth and open the innings along with Usman Khawaja. McSweeney does not boast of great numbers in first-class cricket – an average of 38 in 34 matches – but was in fine form for South Australia in the 2024 Sheffield Shield where he aggregated 291 runs in two matches including a hundred and two fifties.

Concern over Labuschagne’s form

Marnus Labuschagne has a stellar record at home with an aggregate of 2623 runs in 27 Tests at an average of 62.45 but the Australian number 3 has been in poor form since his ton at Manchester last summer. He has an aggregate of just 347 runs at a poor average of 24.78 with just four fifties (and no hundreds) in 16 innings in this time frame.

Watch out for Lyon

Nathan Lyon has a splendid record at the Optus Stadium in Perth – he is the leading wicket-taker at the venue with 27 dismissals in four matches at an average of 18 and a strike rate of 41.6. Lyon also boasts of a fine head-to-head against KL Rahul whom he has dismissed six times in 14 innings at an average of 25.5.

Australia Probable Playing XI: Usman Khawaja, Nathan McSweeney, Marnus Labuschagne, Steven Smith, Travis Head, Mitchell Marsh, Alex Carey, Nathan Lyon, Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood