Arsenal Vs Chelsea, Women's Super League: London Derby Preview, Predicted Final Positions

It is only matchweek four in the Women's Super League but the big games are coming thick and fast. (More Football News)

And Saturday's meeting between Arsenal and reigning champions Chelsea is big, with a capital 'B'.

Arsenal welcome Chelsea to Emirates Stadium for a match that will give fans an early indication of whether the Gunners are really title contenders this season.

It has been an indifferent start to the campaign for Arsenal, who faced last year's runners-up Manchester City on the opening day. That ended in a 2-2 draw, in which Vivianne Miedema netted a first-half equaliser, the first blow inflicted against her former club after a transfer Jonas Eidevall may live to regret.

Arsenal then won a tight game away to Leicester City 1-0 but were held to a draw by struggling Everton.

The Gunners have also played an extra game than their opponents heading into Saturday, as Chelsea's match with Manchester United was cancelled due to its proximity to their Champions League meeting with Real Madrid to their WSL fixture.

Chelsea, who beat Madrid in that aforementioned game, have started like a rocket under new boss Sonia Bompastor, taking maximum points from their opening two WSL matches.

The Blues have scored eight goals in two games, with seven different players scoring. Although it is not quite the same style of play as it was under Emma Hayes, they look well set to continue their domestic dominance.

Chelsea inflicted a 7-0 rout on newcomers Crystal Palace in matchweek two, following on from a tense 1-0 win over Aston Villa. Bompastor is therefore aiming to become the fourth manager to win each of their first three games in the WSL. The previous three are David Parker (2011 with Birmingham City), Rehanne Skinner (2021 with Tottenham) and, coincidentally, Eidevall in 2021.

Both teams have played in Europe this week as they began their group-stage campaigns in the Women's Champions League. While Chelsea edged out Madrid 3-2 in a thriller, Arsenal were humbled 5-2 by Bayern Munich.

Eidevall has been critical of the hectic schedule, feeling the WSL calendar puts English clubs at a disadvantage when they play in European competition. Saturday's game could well be a test of which of these teams have dealt with the demands better.

The heat is on

Arsenal's inability to grind out the wins in crucial games last season left them trailing behind Chelsea and Man City in the run-in and only really playing for third spot. This term, Eidevall has made some changes he thought could improve their chances.

Reinforcements included a Champions League winner with Barcelona, Mariona Caldentey.

However, the World Cup winner is yet to record a league goal contribution this season since her arrival from the Catalan giants, despite leading the way for open-play shot-ending sequences in Arsenal's squad (17).

However, she has registered 1.04 expected assists (xA) – that is the third-highest total in the WSL, behind Man City star Lauren Hemp (1.24) and Liverpool's Marie-Therese Hobinger (1.37).

Indeed, it is again only that duo that can better Caldentey's tally of six chances created.

And despite a poor night for Arsenal in Munich, one of the positives to come from the game was the Spaniard's performance.

Caldentey opened the scoring, had a team-high three shots, and most importantly they all came from inside the box. Despite playing as a forward, a position where it can be hard to see much of the ball, only Leah Williamson (102) and Laia Codina (79) had more touches than her 74 among Arsenal players.

With Caldentey still eyeing her first WSL goal, last season's headline signing Alessia Russo has struggled for form too.

Russo averaged 4.1 shots per 90 last season, but that figure is down to 2.5 this term across her three games. Squandering both big chances that have come her way in the WSL, her expected goals on target (xGoT) of 0.31 compared to her 0.62 expected goals (xG) also shows her finishing has been slightly below par.

However, her rate of touches in the opposition box per 90 is 7.9, up from 7.1 in 2023-24, while she is creating chances on a consistent basis in line with last year, too (1.5 per 90 across both seasons, albeit across a small sample size this season).

This may be the game she sparks into life, as Russo has scored four goals in six WSL appearances against Chelsea, including netting two in two matches against the Blues when she has been playing for the Gunners.

Gunning for goals

The pressure is on Eidevall to find solutions with what is a talented group. 

While Chelsea have been free-scoring in the opening weeks of the season, they have also been clinical. The Blues are the WSL's leading scorers, though they are also the biggest xG overperformers, too, outperforming their 3.9 xG by 4.1 and converting all three of the big chances that have come their way.

Arsenal, on the other hand, have scored just three goals in as many matches. In fact, their 1.4 xG underperformance is the second highest, after Man City's 2.0 (five goals from 7.0 xG). The Gunners have had 47 shots, an average of 15.6 per game, and less than only Villa (48) and Man City (57). Arsenal's shot conversion rate (6.38%) is the fourth-lowest in the WSL, however.

The Gunners must be more ruthless in front of goal. They have had 11 big chances in the WSL this term, yet scored just three of them – that 27.27% big chance conversion rate is higher than only strugglers Everton (0%), West Ham (0%) and Leicester City (20%).

The departure of the WSL's leading all-time goalscorer Miedema angered Arsenal fans at the end of last season, and their lack of potency in front of goal so far has only added to the pressure mounting on Eidevall.

Arsenal may be low in confidence, and some Gunners players endured a difficult game against Bayern, but the same cannot be said for captain Williamson. 

She produced an all-action performance against Bayern and jumped off the page when it comes to many of the headline metrics. She had the best figures of anyone on the pitch for touches (102), accurate passes (77), passes in the final third (24), final third entries (19) and clearances (six), while also playing two key passes.

Frida Maanum has caught the eye, too. She has already netted twice in the WSL, while her 1.04 xG is the highest of any Arsenal player. Her 1.96 xGoT meanwhile, suggests, her finishing has been above what would have been anticipated based on the quality of chances she has taken on.

Only Khadija Shaw (25) has logged more touches in the opposition box than Maanum (18), with the Norwegian level with her former team-mate Miedema.

Bompastor's Va-Va-Voom

There is a different kind of pressure on Bompastor, but she has made a fantastic start to her tenure after replacing the legendary Hayes.

However, she has managed to put her own stamp on this Chelsea side, utilising players in different ways and bringing out the best of the old squad while making smart additions.

One of the standout players so far has been Guru Reiten.

Bompastor has a wealth of attacking talent at her disposal, including Sandy Baltimore, Mayra Ramirez, Lauren James and Johanna Rytting Kaneryd, so Reiten has taken on a more central role.

The Norwegian has spent just 2% of her minutes on the wing this season – 47% of her minutes have been spent in an attacking midfield position, but she has mainly been deployed in a central midfield role.

Last season, she spent just 5% of her time as a central midfielder, with 92% of the minutes she clocked up being spent on the left wing, and 3% at left-back. She has been the most prolific player for Chelsea, scoring twice, and is tied for third for goals scored in the league in 2024-25.

Reiten, who scored in Tuesday's win over Madrid, has thrived with the positional switch, and has registered the second-highest xG in Chelsea's squad in the league (0.58), behind James (0.95).

Bompastor will hope goalkeeper Hannah Hampton is fit after she had to pull out of the Madrid game due to illness. Hampton has saved all seven of the shots on target she has faced this season.

Two other goalkeepers - Manchester United's Phallon Tullis-Joyce (5/5 shots saved) and Arsenal's Daphne van Domselaar (4/4 shots saved) also have a 100% save percentage this term in the WSL.

Hampton is the last line of a solid defence. Chelsea's xG against (xGA) of 1.33 suggests they have been somewhat fortunate not to give up at least a goal, but their tally of 18 shots faced is the second-lowest in the league, albeit they have only played twice.

Millie Bright spent most of last season out with injury and her return has been like a new signing in defence. She has won 12 duels across the two WSL matches she has played this term – more than any other Chelsea player. An actual new signing, Lucy Bronze, has also proved an excellent addition. 

Head-to-head

Chelsea won 3-1 the last time they met Arsenal in the WSL, and will be aiming to win back-to-back league matches against the Gunners for the first time since January 2020.

The Blues have won two of the last three WSL meetings between these sides (3-1 in March 2024, 2-0 in May 2023), though Arsenal beat Chelsea 4-1 in the corresponding fixture last season.

The Gunners also beat Chelsea 1-0 in the Women's League Cup final in March, so there are recent successes to draw on for the hosts.

Eidevall and Bompastor have met twice previously, with both of those games coming in the 2022-23 Champions League group stage: Arsenal beat Lyon 5-1 – inflicting Bompastor's biggest defeat of her managerial career – before losing 1-0 in the return leg.

Eidevall is in desperate need of a result at the Emirates. He has had the beating of Bompastor once before and will need to draw on that experience to find a way past what looks like an unstoppable Chelsea side. If he cannot, then Arsenal's title hopes could already be dwindling before the season has really begun.

Having played a game less than Man City, Chelsea are a point behind the WSL leaders.

The Blues are made the favourites by the Opta supercomputer, which ranks their win probability at 42%. 

Arsenal, on the other hand, came out on top in 32.5% of the model's simulations, so expect a tight encounter, with the draw threat at 25.5%. While they are unbeaten in the WSL this term, it really does feel like Eidevall needs a win to ease some doubts.