The Numbers Game: Arne Slot's Liverpool Face Old Trafford Test

Two of the Premier League's biggest rivals meet at Old Trafford on Sunday, though it is fair to say there has been a gulf in class between these sides, at least over the course of a season, in recent campaigns. (More Football News)

This is, of course, Arne Slot's first game in charge of Liverpool against United. 

None of the Reds' last nine managers have won their first league meeting with the Red Devils, since Bob Paisley beat them 3-1 in November 1975. 

Meanwhile, George Kay is the only Liverpool manager to win his first away league game against United, winning 5-2 at Old Trafford in November 1936.

Will Slot be able to buck that trend on Sunday, putting out a statement regarding Liverpool's title aspirations in the process?

Ahead of the latest meeting between England's two most successful clubs, we look at all the best Opta facts surrounding the game.

What's expected?

It will surprise few to hear the Opta supercomputer makes Liverpool favourites for this one, with the Reds given a 48.4% chance of victory.

United, meanwhile, only came out on top in 28.2% of the simulations the model ran. The match was drawn in 23.4% of scenarios.

Liverpool have lost just one of their last six Premier League away games against United (two wins, three draws), while only Manchester City (nine) have won away at Old Trafford more often than the Reds (seven) in the competition's history. Is it any surprise they are favourites?

United have won just one of their last 12 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (five draws, six losses), beating them 2-1 at Old Trafford in their third game of the 2022-23 campaign.

However, United boss Erik ten Hag has got previous against Slot, having faced him four times in the Eredivisie. Slot's AZ beat Ten Hag's Ajax twice in 2019-20 before Ten Hag twice beat Slot's Feyenoord side in 2021-22. 

This will be the first Premier League game between two Dutch coaches since February 2016, when Guus Hiddink's Chelsea won 2-1 at Ronald Koeman's Southampton.

Ten Hag to unleash young guns?

Last season's FA Cup triumph, in all likelihood, preserved Ten Hag's status as United boss, and the high point in that run undoubtedly came against Liverpool in the last eight.

Going 2-1 down in normal time and 3-2 behind in the extra period, United twice found themselves on the brink of elimination, only to stage a miraculous comeback and steal a 4-3 win.

Amad Diallo was the hero on that occasion, scoring a dramatic 121st-minute winner before being sent off for removing his shirt in the wild celebrations that followed.

Diallo scored just his second Premier League goal in United's 2-1 defeat at Brighton and Hove Albion last time out, and with the Red Devils likely to play on the break against a confident Liverpool outfit, he could do more damage on Sunday.

The 22-year-old has registered 36 carries through his three appearances in the Community Shield and the Premier League in 2024-25, ranking fourth in the United squad behind centre-backs Lisandro Martinez (52) and Harry Maguire (41) and midfielder Kobbie Mainoo (37).

Many United fans have called for Diallo and Alejandro Garnacho to start on either flank, and an injury to Mason Mount could allow for that possibility this weekend, potentially with Marcus Rashford playing a central role.

Garnacho has two goal involvements (one goal, one assist) in all competitions this term, scoring in the Community Shield and assisting Joshua Zirkzee's winner against Fulham on matchday one in the Premier League. That is more than any other United player, despite the Argentine only playing 85 minutes overall. 

With Liverpool likely to leave space down the flanks, United's best route to victory could come via their young wide men.

Arne slots right in

It's been a case of so far, so good for Slot at Anfield. Liverpool have won their first two matches under their new boss, who has big shoes to fill following Jurgen Klopp's departure. 

Both of those victories have been by 2-0 scorelines, versus Ipswich Town and Brentford. Only twice before have they won each of their first three in a campaign without conceding, doing so in 2013-14 and 2018-19 – they beat United 1-0 on September 1 in their third game in 2013-14, so the omens are good.

Slot will be just as pleased with the Reds' performances, though, as he will be with their results. 

No team has had more shots than Liverpool in the Premier League this season (37), while the Reds also have the highest expected goals total (5.3) and the lowest expected goals against total (1.0) thus far.

Liverpool's pre-season was overshadowed by suggestions some of Klopp's most seasoned campaigners – most prominently Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk – could follow him through the exit door. However, both have made the transition to Slot's more possession-based style look serene.

Salah has already netted twice for Liverpool this season, and he is the highest-scoring visiting player to Old Trafford in Premier League history, with six goals. The Egyptian has netted in each of his last six away games against United in all competitions (nine goals in total).

Van Dijk, meanwhile, is set to make his 200th Premier League appearance for Liverpool, having been on the winning side in 139 of 199 outings to date, already the most wins any player has picked up in his first 200 for the club in the competition.

It will be intriguing to see how daring Slot's approach is, with Liverpool ranking fourth in the Premier League for possession share (62.2%), successful passes (1,172) and passes completed in the opposition half (537) through the first two matchdays.

A victory at Old Trafford, especially if achieved in a convincing manner, could provide lift-off for the Dutchman's reign.

PLAYERS TO WATCH 

Manchester United – Marcus Rashford

Rashford might well be United's best hope, particularly if they are forced to soak up pressure and hit Liverpool on the break. 

He has only scored more goals against Leicester City (eight) in all competitions than he has against Liverpool (seven). 

All seven of these strikes have come in his 10 appearances against them at Old Trafford, including an extra-time strike in last season's memorable 4-3 FA Cup victory.

Liverpool – Dominik Szoboszlai 

Szoboszlai has been involved in more attacking sequences (20 – four shots, five chances created and 11 build-up involvements) than any other player in the Premier League this season. 

Five other Liverpool players rank in the top 10 by that metric – Luis Diaz (19), Trent Alexander-Arnold (16), Salah and Andy Robertson (both 15).

Given United's tendency to give up space in midfield, the dynamic Hungarian could be the driving force for Liverpool.