How can the McLaren ace Lando Norris overcome a three-time world champion, Max Verstappen who is just one race away from his fourth title?
In a word, yes! But upon closer examination, it’s nearly impossible. Let’s explore whether Lando Norris can still overcome Max Verstappen to secure his first Formula One Drivers' Championship title, despite finishing sixth at the Brazilian Grand Prix 2024 on Sunday. (More Motorsports News)
Following the dramatic showdown at Interlagos, where Verstappen surged from P17 to secure first place, he now boasts eight wins, 13 podiums, and 393 points. With only three races remaining—Las Vegas, Qatar (including sprint), and Abu Dhabi—Lando Norris stands second with 331 points, having secured three Grand Prix victories and 12 podiums.
So how can the McLaren ace overcome a three-time world champion who is just one race away from his fourth title?
In Formula One, the winner of a Grand Prix race earns 25 points, second place gets 18 points, and third place finisher receives 15 points. However, there are additional points for sprint race, fastest lap and for positions beyond third.
In this scenario, with three races left, the maximum points that Lando could theoretically earn is:
3 wins (75 points)
Plus 3 points for fastest laps (if he achieves that)
8 points for winning the sprint race in Qatar (assuming he wins the sprint)
This totals to 86 points, bringing his potential total to 417 points.
But, if Max finishes in second place in all three remaining races, he would earn:
3 second-place finishes (54 points)
Plus any points for the fastest laps (again, up to 3 points).
7 points for the sprint (assuming he finishes second)
This would give him a potential total of 457 points.
Currently, there is a gap of 62 points, the British driver, Lando Norris, can only reach a maximum of 417 points if he wins all remaining races and the sprint race at the Losail Circuit while securing the fastest lap in each.
And despite the wins in Las Vegas, Qatar (with the sprint) and Abu Dhabi, for Lando to have a chance, Max would need to finish below second place in at least two of those races and potentially not score any points from fastest laps.
If only uncertainties like mechanical failures, penalties, or crashes come into play completely sabotaging the RB20 in all the three races, it could dramatically affect Max's point total, paving the way for a miracle for Norris.
Here’s a scenario that keeps Lando Norris’s hopes alive (though it's not practically feasible, but still it is what it is).
If Lando wins all three remaining races and secures the fastest lap in each:
Points from 3 Wins: 75 points (25 points per win)
Points from 3 Fastest Laps: 3 points (1 point per fastest lap)
Sprint: 8 points (if he wins at Losail)
Total for Lando:
Current Points: 331
Total: 331 + 86 = 417 points.
Max Verstappen's Points Calculation:
If Max finishes lower than 10th place in all remaining races, he will earn no points.
If Max finishes 11th or lower:
Points per race: 0
Total for 3 races: 0 points
Current Points: 393
Total: 393 + 0 = 393 points.
Comparison
Lando’s Total: 409 points
Max’s Total with No Points from Lower Finishes: 393 points
That's how Norris can win the championship: a scenario reminiscent of the Australian Grand Prix, where Max faced a car failure and did not finish the race. Aside from that, the three-time champion has consistently earned points throughout the season.
So, mathematically it is possible for Lando Norris to win the dream championship, but sadly it would require a perfect performance from him combined with several missteps from Max. It's a tough scenario, but not entirely impossible! However, there is a potential penalty looming over Norris, which could further complicate matters.
This situation could even jeopardize his second position finish, especially with Ferrari's Charles Leclerc hot on his heels in third place, holding 303 points.
Meanwhile, Max Verstappen is just one win away from securing the F1 2024 championship. If he continues his impressive form from Brazil at the Las Vegas Street Circuit, he will secure the title.
At the Sao Paulo Grand Prix, rain played a spoiling role, dashing many things including Lando Norris’s hopes for the championship. The race began with a shaky start for the McLaren star, who pulled away from the grid despite an aborted launch. This incident will be reviewed by stewards post-race.
Once the race finally got underway, things did not go as planned. Norris lost the lead to Mercedes' George Russell soon and made a crucial pit stop for fresh intermediate tires just as a virtual safety car period was concluding.
Brazil's weather always adds a unique chapter to the F1 saga. On Sunday, heavy rain interrupted the already delayed race, leading to a dramatic turn of events. Franco Colapinto of Williams saw his race come to an abrupt halt when he crashed into the wall, causing the deployment of the safety car.
Meanwhile, this was far from an ideal moment for Lando Norris to make a pit stop, as he lost crucial positions just before the red flag was waved. That's when the Red Bull hero Max Verstappen and the Alpine duo of Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly (who finished on the podium) grabbed the opportunity for a free tire change before the race resumed.
Now, Lando Norris is anxiously awaiting the penalty decision from the stewards.
Given the penalty that will slap him and after all, defeating a driver like Verstappen in three consecutive races—especially considering he just became the first driver since Kimi Raikkonen 19 years ago to win a race starting from such a low position on the grid, finishing with a remarkable 19.4 seconds lead, it is not easy. Many would argue that it is nearly impossible. Lando's dream to win his first F1 title in 2024 is just not possible.