Arjun Erigaisi Narrowly Misses 2800 FIDE Rating Club, But It's Still A Huge Deal. Here's Why

He will only be classified as a one-time visitor for now, but Arjun Erigaisi briefly entered a club so exclusive in chess that it has fewer members than world champions. The top-ranked Indian touched the 2800-mark in live FIDE ratings, before narrowly missing out in the formal, published list of November. (More Chess News)

Erigaisi is now world number four with an Elo rating of 2799. Only 14 players have ever made it to the 2800-plus club officially, while the sport has witnessed 17 world champions. In fact, only five world champions are part of the club — India's very own Viswanathan Anand, Magnus Carlsen, Garry Kasparov, Vladimir Kramnik and Ding Liren.

The 21-year-old Erigaisi could have become the 15th entrant, if not for the one-point gap. But he is well poised to achieve the feat in one of the coming months.

Dutch grandmaster (GM) Anish Giri had similarly crossed the 2800 threshold in live ratings in 2015, but has failed to make the cut in the monthly ratings list post that. And thus, the hallowed club continues to be 14-strong since December 2021, which is when Iranian-French GM Alireza Firouzja entered it. Firouzja is the only player to have made the leap in the last five years.

The legendary Anand is the only Indian member in this elusive club, and the ninth-highest rated player of all time with a peak FIDE rating of 2817. Norwegian titan Carlsen is perched atop with a personal high of 2882. World number one Carlsen is still active but his rating has dropped to 2831, which shows exactly how intense the competition is in the 2800 club.

Elo Rating System Explained

Coined after physicist and Hungarian-American chess player Arpad Elo who devised it in 1970, the Elo rating system is the method used to rank chess players based on their ability. The ratings not only account for wins and losses but also consider the relative strength of the two players involved in a chess match.

The difference in quality of two opponents is the basis of the point system. Hence, a higher-ranked player will get fewer points than a lower-ranked one for winning the same match. Superior players can thus not just keep winning against lower-ranked opponents to boost their ratings.

As players climb the rankings, they find it progressively harder to garner more points. Further, as the system follows a zero-sum approach, wherein the loser will lose the number of points the winner will gain, if higher-ranked players are trounced by lower-ranked ones, they lose more points.

To put things in statistical perspective, a player who is rated 100 points higher than their opponent is expected to win nearly five out of eight (64%) games against the latter. A player with a 200-point lead should win three out of four (75%) games on an average.

The Elo rating system was officially adopted by the International Chess Federation (FIDE) in 1970. This is why some legendary players like Bobby Fischer, who reached a peak rating of 2785, are not part of the 2800 club.

What It Means For Erigaisi And Indian Chess

Had Erigaisi broken into the 2800 club in November, he would have been the second youngest player to be there, with only Firouzja (who joined at 18) being younger. Nevertheless, the Warangal lad still has plenty of time to get there.

What is also special about Erigaisi’s rise is the fact that he has added 90-odd rating points while playing in open tournaments. Back in October 2023, Erigaisi's rating was 2712. At open tournaments, multiple players of varying rating strengths compete as against the closed invitational events, where only elite players are summoned.

As explained earlier, a draw or loss against a much lower rated player could adversely affect the ratings of a top pro. At closed invitational events, that risk is not there as all players come with comparably high rating points under their belt. If and when Erigaisi crossed the 2800 hurdle, he would get more invites to such closed events.

Overall, Erigaisi's stature is significant as it is further evidence of India's growing dominance in world chess. It was praised by Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself, and follows the historic twin gold medals at the Chess Olympiad. It has since been succeeded by the news of the three-year-old Anish Sarkar becoming the world's youngest FIDE-rated chess player. To add to that, the trailblazing D Gukesh will take on reigning champ Ding Liren as an equal, in the battle for the World Championship crown in a few days' time.

All of this goes on to show that Indian chess prodigies have truly taken the scene by storm, and could redefine the sport's legacy in the years to come.