ATP Finals Preview: Will Djokovic's Drop Out Pave The Way For Another Sinner-Alcaraz Tussle?

The end of the 2024 season is upon us, but before the ATP Tour wraps up until 2025, there is one final big tournament to come. (More Tennis News)

That season finale is, of course, the ATP Finals, and it kicks off in Turin on Sunday, with eight of the world's top players vying for the prize.

Jannik Sinner is already sure of his place as the year-end number one, but there could be movement in the rankings below him, with Alexander Zverev heading into the tournament as the newly minted world number two, ahead of Carlos Alcaraz.

Reigning champion Novak Djokovic withdrew on Monday, meaning for the first time since 2001, none of the "big three" (Djokovic, Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer) will feature at the ATP Finals.

Djokovic beat Sinner last year to claim his seventh ATP Finals title, which is the most times a player has won the competition.

Sinner, fresh from triumphs at Flushing Meadows and the Shangai Masters, heads to Turin as the favourite, with an eighth title on the line, but let's look ahead to the 2024 ATP Finals with Opta's pre-tournament facts.

Sin(ner) City

Sinner will not only be the firm fan favourite in Turin, he will always be the favourite to claim the crown.

The 23-year-old has already collected a Tour-leading seven titles this season, including the Australian Open and the US Open, and will be out to go one better following his loss to Djokovic in last year's final.

Six of Sinner's victories have come on hard court, with his triumph at the Halle Open the only exception. 

The Italian is only the fifth player aged 23 or under to win at least six Tour-level titles on hard courts in a calendar year after Jimmy Connors (1973), Ivan Lendl (1981), Pete Sampras (1994) and Federer (2004).

Since the ATP's redistribution of ranking points in 2009, only Djokovic (2015) and Nadal (2010) have clinched the year-end number one earlier in a season than Sinner in 2024.

He is out to become the seventh player to win the ATP Finals on home soil in the Open Era, and will be the player to beat in Turin.

Alcaraz and Zverev scrapping for second

Zverev comes into the tournament in excellent form, on the back of winning the Paris Masters.

His triumph in France not only saw him move into second place in the rankings, but also saw him claim his 66th match win, which is more than any other player in 2024 (Sinner is second on 65).

Among the qualifiers for this year's event, Zverev (14) and Daniil Medvedev (11) are the only two to have recorded 10+ match wins at the ATP Finals.

Zverev is only 27, but he is comparatively a veteran at the ATP Finals when stacked up against the other players to have qualified for this year's event. The German will be featuring at the tournament for the seventh time.

Since the rankings were first published in 1973, Boris Becker (four) holds the most wins over the world number one at the ATP Finals – Federer and Zverev have the next-most such wins, with three each.

Among players with multiple matches against the world number one at the ATP Finals, Zverev (3-2) is the only player to hold a winning record.

With Djokovic out of the picture, Alcaraz will be hoping to get back into the top two to end the year.

Only Sinner (12) has claimed more top 10 wins in 2024 than Alcaraz (11), whose last such win came against Sinner in Beijing in September.

Alcaraz is the only player to claim multiple wins over top-five ranked opponents on hard, grass and clay courts in consecutive seasons since the rankings were published in 1973. John McEnroe (1984) is the only other player to achieve the feat in a single year.

The other names in the hat

Who else will be looking for glory next week?

Medvedev comes into the ATP Finals ranked at number four in the world. Only two players won more matches at grand slams in 2024 than the Russian (18), and they are Sinner (23) and Alcaraz (19).

Taylor Fritz reached his first major final earlier this year, losing to Sinner at the US Open. Only two players - Zverev and Sinner - have won more matches on the Tour in 2024 than the American, who has an impressive 49-21 record.

After qualifying for the 2022 ATP Finals, Fritz will become the first American to make multiple appearances at the event since Andy Roddick (2003, 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2010).

Casper Ruud is one of only three players, along with Sinner (eight) and Alcaraz (five), to have reached at least five ATP finals this year.

Alex de Minaur, meanwhile, will become the first Australian to appear at the ATP Finals since Lleyton Hewitt 20 years ago.

Hewitt went on to reach the final, so there is a good omen there for his compatriot.