The European climate change agency Copernicus reported on Thursday that 2024 is almost certain to become the warmest year on record, with average global temperatures exceeding the critical 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This projection follows an exceptionally warm October, marking the second-warmest October globally.
The announcement comes just days ahead of the UN climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, where world leaders will negotiate new climate finance commitments. Developed nations are expected to agree on financial support for developing countries from 2025, aimed at helping them address and adapt to climate change.
Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), emphasized the significance of this record-breaking year. “After 10 months of 2024, it is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record, and the first year with temperatures exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels,” she said. “This milestone should serve as a call to raise ambition at the upcoming COP29 conference.”
In October, the global surface air temperature averaged 15.25 degrees Celsius, which is 0.80 degrees Celsius above the October average from 1991 to 2020. For the first 10 months of 2024, global temperatures were 0.71 degrees Celsius higher than the 1991-2020 average, surpassing the same period in 2023 by 0.16 degrees Celsius.
Scientists at C3S project that since 2023 reached 1.48 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, 2024 is likely to surpass 1.5 degrees and could reach 1.55 degrees Celsius. This threshold, set at the 2015 Paris climate talks, aims to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. However, the Paris Agreement’s 1.5-degree Celsius limit is defined as a long-term average, spanning 20 to 30 years.
Since the late 19th century, Earth’s surface temperature has already risen by about 1.2 degrees Celsius due to greenhouse gas emissions, primarily from carbon dioxide and methane. This increase is linked to extreme weather events, including droughts, wildfires, and floods.
According to C3S, October temperatures were above average across Europe, northern Canada, the central and western United States, northern Tibet, Japan, and Australia. India also recorded its warmest October since 1901, with a mean temperature 1.23 degrees Celsius above normal. The India Meteorological Department has predicted that November will likely be warmer than usual as well.
(This story has been slightly reworked from an auto-generated PTI feed.)
