A new report from the Global Carbon Project reveals that global fossil fuel emissions are expected to reach a record 37.4 billion tonnes in 2024, marking a 0.8% increase from 2023. This rise comes even as renewable energy efforts expand and a landmark agreement at COP28 in Dubai last year sought to shift the world away from fossil fuel dependence. However, global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are projected to grow from 40.6 billion tonnes in 2023 to 41.6 billion tonnes in 2024, putting 2024 on track to become the hottest year ever recorded.
The report highlights regional differences in emissions trends, with India’s emissions forecasted to rise by 4.6% in 2024. As the world’s most populous nation and one of its fastest-growing economies, India’s greenhouse gas emissions surged by 6.1% in 2023, contributing 8% to the global total. Despite its current emissions growth, India's historical contribution remains modest at 3% of global CO2 emissions, and its per capita emissions stand at 2.9 tons of CO2, less than half the global average of 6.6 tons. India has pledged to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070 and aims for 500 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030.
China, responsible for 32% of global emissions, is expected to see a slight increase of 0.2%, though it may decline slightly depending on further economic adjustments. The United States and the European Union, accounting for 13% and 7% of global emissions respectively, are set to reduce their emissions in 2024 by 0.6% and 3.8%.
Globally, fossil fuel contributions vary, with coal, oil, and gas accounting for 41%, 32%, and 21% of CO2 emissions, respectively. Coal emissions are predicted to rise by 0.2%, oil by 0.9%, and gas by 2.4%, although the report notes that coal emissions could potentially decline in 2024. International aviation and shipping, responsible for 3% of total emissions and reported separately from national totals, are projected to increase by 7.8% in 2024, though these emissions remain below pre-pandemic levels.
Emissions from land-use changes, such as deforestation, have decreased by 20% over the last decade but are expected to increase slightly in 2024. Reforestation and new forest planting are now mitigating about half of the emissions from permanent deforestation. Technology-based carbon removal remains minimal, accounting for only a fraction of emissions from fossil fuels. Natural carbon sinks, including forests and oceans, continue to absorb around half of total CO2 emissions, but their effectiveness is being compromised by climate change.
Despite global efforts, the Global Carbon Project underscores that fossil fuel emissions show no signs of peaking, intensifying concerns as the impacts of climate change become more severe worldwide.
(This article is a reworked version of a PTI feed)
