According to new research, humanity may have hit the upper limit of life expectancy. Despite medical advances, breakthroughs in genetic research, and an increasing number of people reaching the age of 100, overall life expectancy has not significantly increased. This research, published in Nature Aging study highlights a slowdown in longevity gains in countries with the world’s longest-living populations.
S. Jay Olshansky, a lead researcher from the University of Illinois-Chicago, pointed out that this might prompt changes in retirement planning and expectations for old age. Mark Hayward, a University of Texas researcher noted that life expectancy may have "plateaued." While future innovations could extend life, no current breakthroughs suggest this will happen soon.
What Is Life Expectancy?
Life expectancy measures the average number of years a newborn can expect to live, assuming consistent death rates. While an important health metric, it doesn’t account for unexpected events like pandemics or medical discoveries that could significantly alter death rates. The new study examined data from 1990 to 2019, focusing on eight regions with the longest-living populations, including Australia, Japan, and Switzerland. The U.S. was also included, despite its lower global ranking in life expectancy.
Who Lives the Longest?
The research shows that while women continue to live longer than men, the rate of life expectancy improvement has slowed. In the 1990s, life expectancy rose by an average of 2.5 years per decade. By the 2010s, that rate had dropped to 1.5 years per decade—and almost zero in the U.S. This stagnation is attributed to factors like drug overdoses, gun violence, obesity, and healthcare inequalities.
Even if all deaths before age 50 were eliminated, the study found that life expectancy would increase by only 1.5 years, suggesting that early deaths are not the primary limit on human longevity.
Why Life Expectancy May Have Peaked
Why Life Expectancy May Have Peaked The research suggests that a natural limit to human life expectancy exists, and we may have already reached it. “We’re getting diminishing returns from life-extending technologies,” Olshansky explained, noting that aging itself is a barrier to further increases. While it may seem more common to hear of individuals living to 100, these instances remain relatively rare. In 2019, about 2% of Americans reached that milestone, compared to 5% in Japan and 9% in Hong Kong. Although the number of centenarians is expected to grow due to population increases, the percentage of people reaching 100 is likely to remain limited. Olshansky estimates fewer than 15% of women and 5% of men in most countries will live to 100.
(This article is a reworked version of a PTI feed)
