Fashion is fickle. The rules are constantly rewritten and reinvented. Colours, fabrics, cuts, styles, silhouettes are discovered and discarded every season. But when designers and trade experts predict the demise of a fabric like denim and with it those swingin' blue jeans, it's time to sit up and take notice. Yes, the news is that denim is dying a slow, ignominious death. The world over, blue jeans - which withstood fashion's diktats for over a century - are suddenly passe. 'Denim is breathing with oxygen cylinders. It awaits resuscitation' says Dr Darlie Koshy, fashion trade analyst at the National Institute of Fashion Technology (nift).
The signs are everywhere. Peek into the wardrobe of a youth, any youth, anywhere in the world; chances are that jeans are being nudged to the back of the closet. Up front are khakis, chinos, gaberdines, cotton twill and wrinkle-free cotton trousers with knits, jerseys and pocket Ts. Pick up any magazine, watch any TV commercial, the message is distinctly non-denim.
Sample some hard facts:
Marketmen and experts tell the same story. 'We are devoting 15 per cent more shelf space to chinos, khakis and other trousers than we did two years ago,' says Sandeep Malhotra, general manager, Benetton. 'Supply constraints kept the ratio of denim to twill bottomwear sales at 80:20. This year, it's 60:40 and is likely to move to 50:50. It's a sellers' market for non-denim wear,' says Bela Gupta, general manager, Shoppers' Stop, the country's foremost retail store.
Why are the bells tolling for this iconic fabric that graduated from being American miners' gear to become staple fare in almost every wardrobe, a fabric that sold as much to royalty as to rock stars?
Globally, there is a shift from denim to khakis. 'The domestic trend is a reflection of the international. Fashion is no longer American or European, but global. So when youth in New York or Paris make a fashion statement, there is an echo in Hong Kong and Mumbai,' says Professor Asha Baxi, a professor at nift. This trickledown effect is fuelling the trend of khakis and chinos overtaking jeans as preferred casualwear. 'They have taken a chunk of the jeans market because they are more comfortable,' says Malhotra of Benetton.
'Comfort is the key to dressing in the '90s. Today's youth is looking for versatility, comfort, as well as value for money,' says Baxi. Here, non-denim casuals score over jeans. 'Khakis are not just comfortable, they are easy to dress up or dress down. I can walk into office wearing khakis with a cotton shirt and tie, and later go to the disco.My rupee stretches more with khakis,' says 26-year-old Ajay Mishra, browsing the range of khakis at a Colour Plus showroom in New Delhi.
'What was strictly on-field sportswear only a couple of years ago is now becoming everyday wear,' says Baxi. You don't have to be an athlete to wear these clothes. Weather-worn looks, drawstring waist, tons of pockets, convertibles that zip at the knees to make shorts, board shorts and floppy fisherman hats or golf caps are the styles for the '90s. Lightweight cotton twills, nylon, rayon mixes and a host of other fabrics lend extra zing. 'Earlier, when you thought casuals, you thought blue jeans with Ts. Today, the range has widened,' says Malhotra. Brands like Nike, Reebok, American Eagle, Old Navy, Timberland and desi spin-offs like Woodland are fast becoming a must-have for kids and parents alike. The strain on denim shows.
Then there's technology. Parameters like moisture comfort and pressure comfort are driving the development of new fabrics, as are value-added treatments like anti-bacteria, anti-UV, non-iron, water-repellent and easy-care. Denim's a big loser here. 'Till the '70s, denim was traditional, a typical weave of white and indigo. In the '80s, it got distorted as it took on new hues and finishes like acidwash and stonewash. In the early '90s, it made a desperate attempt to come back in the original form but it seems to have lost out in the fashion race,' says Baxi.
That's the fashion story. Where does it leave the business story of denim? In the doldrums, the world over. The global growth of denim production hovers between 4 and 5 per cent per annum, down from 20 per cent in the early '90s. How does that impact the likes of Arvind Mills, KG Denim, Modern, Ashima, Century and Raymond, many of whom have been dedicating 50-70 per cent of their capacities to the export market? Arvind Mills, the biggest in the business, is innovating furiously by introducing midweight denims, adding lycra, microfibres, polyester and other fibres to increase denim's appeal to the activewear market. Technology is being applied to create textures in denim that resemble jacquard strips, window panes, rip cord and give the twill effect. Simultaneously, Arvind is diversifying into other fabrics. 'Our strategy is fourfold: build sustainable competitive advantage, disperse marketing geographically, focus on value-added denim and innovative methods of servicing customers,' says an official. The company has moved into gaberdines, chinos and cotton casuals with the setting up two plants in Gujarat - an 18 million metres per annum (mmpa) plant at Santhej, and a 10 mmpa flexicapacity plant at Naroda that can switch between denim and non-denim.
Denim brands are also chasing the consumer more aggressively. According to estimates, non-denims will account for 40 per cent of the non-formalwear market next year, up from 28 per cent at present. Levi's has dropped prices for its jeans. And for the first time ever, it is retailing a non-denim casual range - twills, chinos, gaberdines - under the Levi's brandname.
Pepe too is adding a new casualwear line. It hopes to get 25 per cent of its turnover through casuals as compared to 15 per cent now. And it's looking at the entire denimwear market - T-shirts, shirts, even socks, caps and shades. 'Most customers want a total look. Brands that traditionally focused on bottomwear are focusing on tops too. The ratio of bottomwear to topwear is shifting from 80:20 to 70:30 and I expect it to go to 50:50,' says Gupta of Shoppers' Stop. Arvind Mills has launched Lee Youth to broadbase its customers. Simultaneously, it is looking to deepen penetration in the semi-urban market with its low-priced Ruf&Tuf and Newport ranges.
Will all this resuscitate denim? 'Individuality is becoming the stamp of the fashion-forward crowd. It's difficult for a democratic, egalitarian, familiar, cross-gender and commonplace fabric like denim to make individuality statements,' says Koshi. 'Denim has to try really hard to be trendy again,' adds Baxi.
Those in the denim business, however, are wary of possibly premature last rites. 'The world over, experts might be singing denim's swan song. But in a country with a trouser penetration rate of just 35 million pairs and a vast rural consumer base that is ready to take on this symbol of Americana, it might be too early to write an obituary for jeans,' says textile expert Arvind Singhal. For millions of not-so-well-off Indian youth at least, the first step to modern clothing will continue to be blue jeans for many years to come. Fashion hasn't caught up with real life quite just yet.
