The Other India
- After 7 per cent plus growth in the mid-’90s, we seem to be stuck with 6 per cent.
- The rich have gone richer and it seems the poor have too. But regional inequalities have sharpened.
- Unless power, water, roads and other infrastructure improves, reforms may never touch most Indians.
Now : MTV and FTV have survived the culture police and prospered.
Then : The best that monopolistic Doordarshan offered was Chitrahaar.
Now : WAP-enabled cellphones have brought the world to our fingertips.
Then : Pre-Net, the telegram was the fastest way to get across.
Competition Success
- The price of a Maruti 800 reflects the success of the markets. Salaries quadrupled, yet the DX model
only costs twice its ’91 level. - The price line has held firm although the state has lost the battle for the fisc.
- India wants to raise FDI inflow by five times to $10 billion. It will still be far behind China’s $45 billion.
Now : Slick, cheap Chinese gizmos vie for a slice of the purse.
Then : C-grade, cheap local products swamped the bazaars.
External Account Success
- Forex Reserves $1 bn in ’91 $40 bn in ’01
- Short-Term Debt (% Of Forex Reserves) 14.6 in ’91 10.6 in ’01
- Current Account Deficit (% OF GDP) -3.1 in ’91 -0.9 in ’01
Now : Credit cards with global validity, payable in Indian rupees
Then : The FTS plan, where $500 was allotted a year by the RBI
Best And Brightest
Gujarat and Maharashtra grew at close to 10 per cent, beating South Asia.
Literacy in States: Top 5 (Percentage of literate population) 1991 2001 Kerala 90 91Mah. 65 77TN 63 73Gujarat 62 70Punjab 59 70India 52 65Source: Planning Commission; Census 2001
Made In India
Competition will lead to true Indian brands, local and global.
Best corporate performers (By market Cap/$ billion)1991 -921 2001Tisco HLLITC RILTelco WiproCn. Tex InfosysHLL RPLRIL ITCGrasim ONGCGSFC IOC ACC SBI Colgate HCL Source : Bt Morgan Stanlay Capital International
The Factory Mindset
- Industry grew by 12 per cent in 1995-96, its last great hurrah. Growth has slackened to 2.7 per cent this April.
- Contrary to popular belief, labour cost went up by $157 per year to $1,192 in the post-reform period.
Time For Social Renewal
- Female illiteracy is still an abysmal 56 per cent, compared to China’s 25.
- Employment in organised sector stays stagnant at 2.8 crore in fiscal ’99.
- Average life expectancy has slightly improved to 63 years.
A Recipe For Disaster
- According to a member of the BJP think-tank, 7 lakh small units shut shop, 7,000 medium and large
industrial units closed down and 10 million lost jobs in the past five years - The Left says while savings are poor—25 per cent of the GDP—policy encourages uninhibited consumption
Many New Enigmas
Nine states, home to 60 per cent of our people, saw little per capita incomegrowth.
Percentage of people below poverty line 1993 1999 Bihar 55 43Orissa 49 47MP 43 37UP 41 31Mah. 37 25India 36 26Source: Planning Commission; Census 2001
Overflowing Silos, Empty Stomachs
- The farm sector grew by 3.9 per cent in the pre-reform period. In fiscal 2000, it may drop to just 0.9 per cent.
- Food stocks have ballooned from 13 MT in ’91-92 to 42 MT. But many poor are now out of the PDS.
