The past two weeks have left tour operators and agents woebegone. Cancellations began immediately after the wtc strikes. "On the first day, 20 per cent of travel plans stood cancelled," says Subhash Goel, president, Confederation of Tourism Professionals of India. Operators, especially those dealing with leisure and conference groups, fear a loss of business worth Rs 40-50 crore, as much as 10 per cent of annual business.
The crisis couldn’t have come at a worse time. For, October-March is the high season for tourism and "if the situation does not improve in the next 15 days or so, and if there’s a war, we might as well say goodbye to the season," says travel consultant Rabindra Seth.
Of the 26 lakh tourists who come to India every year, compared to the 48 lakh who fly out, more than 2.5 lakh are from the US. Though they are third after Bangladesh and the UK in terms of numbers, American tourists, along with the European and Japanese, spend the highest—$80-90 each day, compared to the average of $46.
The industry is hopeful that corporate travel will resume once things settle down, but leisure travel is in for a major setback. There’s already an oversupply in the metros (more than 100 hotels will be ready in India over the next five years), and now, even smaller centres like Jaipur, Jodhpur, Agra and Goa are bound to suffer.
HVS International, a global hospitality consulting firm, which had predicted stable business before the attacks, estimates that occupancy rates will dip by 10-15 per cent across all cities. Average room rates are also expected to decline by 5-10 per cent. Says Manav Thadani, MD, hvs International: "The short-term picture is fairly grim. We would advise hotels to concentrate on January 2002 and thereafter hope for recovery."
