WILL Delhiites dream of breathing easier come true soon? If an empowered committee has its way, diesel, claimed to be the severest air pollutant, is on its way out of the national capital region ( NCR ). Pitted against one of the toughest environmental crusades in the country, however, are a host of diesel users, mainly public transport and a section of the automobile industry, who have promised to put up a stiff fight. Although the Supreme Court- appointed Empowered Pollution Control Authority ( EPCA ) is expected to come out with a recommendation for banning the fuel in the NCR shortly, the popular fuel valued more for its subsidised price in India seems set for a protracted battle over its future.
Protracted and difficult because if the apex court decides to go with the EPCA recommendation, the move will have wide- ranging ramifications on several economic sectors. The move could soon spill over to other cities and cause unrest. The public transport fleet, run mostly by state governments, will be the worst hit. With few state administrations financially viable, the cost of replacement/ conversion of diesel engines by CNG or petrol- run ones could be phenomenal.
The immediate impact in the NCR will be severe. With the ban, the registration of all new- generation cars running on diesel will be stopped. These include the Telco Indica, Fiat Uno diesel, Zen Diesel and even Mercedes Benz. Worse, the fate of some companies like Telco and Fiat India, whose diesel models are popular, will be jeopardised.
The industry calls this much ado about nothing. Only about 5 per cent of the non-commercial vehicles in the NCR run on diesel, it argues. Says Jairam Ramnath, consultant, Telco: "Diesel passenger cars contribute only 0.18 per cent or less to the SPM (suspended particulate matter, a measure of air pollution) factor in Delhi. Petrol emits more total pollutants, especially carbon dioxide, which impacts global warming, and benzene, which is a carcinogen. Ninety-three per cent of the vehicles in Delhi are petrol driven, mostly two or three- wheelers."
And therein lies the rub. Diesel loyalists allege that the crusade against diesel is a conspiracy by the petrol lobby to strengthen its position in the market, a position threatened by the advent of advanced- technology diesel cars. The arrival of world- class models has combined with the cost factor to push diesel car sales by 25- 30 per cent a year of late. This is even when the auto sector has grown at 10- 12 per cent. At this rate, by 2010, the number of diesel cars will equal the number of vehicles on road today.
Anti- pollution lobbies arent impressed. Says Anumita Roychowdhury, coordinator, air pollution control, for the Centre for Science and Environment ( CSE ), the strongest advocate of the ban: "It isnt petrol- versus- diesel. In Delhi, over 70 per cent of the pollution load is from vehicular emissions. A majority of this is from diesel vehicles, for two- thirds of the fuel consumed in Delhi is diesel."
How did diesel, for long considered a green fuel as it was 15- 20 per cent more fuel efficient than petrol, become the worst offender? Its image took a severe beating in the 90s when a California study showed that diesel exhaust contained 10- 100 times more particles than petrol. Experts noted that it wasnt the total quantity that mattered, but the size of the particles the smaller the particles, the more were the chances of their going straight to the lungs.
In the West, air pollution monitoring authorities measure the concentration and size of the particles those with a diameter of 10 microns or less, or PM 10, and those of 2.5 microns or less, or PM 2.5 ( see chart ). In March 98, the Central Pollution Control Board ( CPCB ) shifted to these measures and came out with startling findings the level in Delhi is five to six times higher than normal. Says Roychowdhury: "About 90 per cent of the total PM in diesel emissions is of one micron size which is not only toxic but dangerously carcinogenic too." But the diesel lobby feels the fuel is being unfairly singled out. Says an official from a major diesel car maker: "Yes, theres air pollution; but when policy planners discuss ways of bringing the situation under control, they invariably focus on automobiles, diesel cars in particular. Ironically, according to CPCB s own surveys, 81 per cent of Delhis SPM and toxic load comes from manufacturing industries and power plants. The transport sector accounts for only 10 per cent. Instead of checking industrial pollution, theyre trying to take the easy way out by axing diesel." Automotive engineering consultant A. S. Subramanium agrees. "There is no conclusive medical evidence to suggest that diesel exhaust is carcinogenic. And out-side Delhi, petrol contains lead which is known medically to damage the brain and kidneys apart from clogging respiratory organs. Its a paradox really. Also, no one is pointing out that the two- stroke engine, with a mixed lubrication system, is one of the major sources of particulate matter." Says Dr B.S. Murthy, a retired IIT professor who has conducted extensive research on the issue: "In Europe, the diesel engine is being used increasingly for its thermodynamic fuel efficiency. And in Europe, diesel has no price edge as in India or Brazil. Companies there are making large investments in developing sophisticated, low emission diesel engines. Peugeot- Citroen is launching a new car fitted with a particulate trap that reduces particulate matter emission by 100 per cent." Another reason, say experts, for turning to diesel is high CO2 emissions from a petrol engine. Todays typical petrol engines emit 245 gm per km, while the emission for a standard diesel engine is 157 gm. This, set against a backdrop of Euro emission norms of 140gm/ km by 2008 and 120 gm/ km by 2012, has compelled conversion to diesel. But, according to CSE , most countries, like the US, UK, Japan, France and Australia, have already begun to revert to petrol and are trying to discourage use of diesel. In India, a diesel ban was vital because not only is it at the root of pollution, but its also of extremely poor quality. In August last year, the California Environmental Authority designated diesel as the strongest air pollutant and asked companies to undertake corrective measures. Says Shankar Prasad, advisor, California Air Resources Board, who was in Delhi recently: "If small particulate pollution level in California ever reached the same levels as in Delhi today, the authorities would have declared an emergency, taken all vehicles off the road and shut down all emission sources in the city." Clearly, the debate is set to go into the next millennium even as air pollution keeps claiming more and more lives. In 1991- 92, according to a CSE study, about 7,500 people in Delhi died of air pollution related diseases. In the last two years, this has become over 20,000, even as consumption of petrol rose by 31 per cent and diesel by 69 per cent between 91 and 97. And as the number of car- owners rises, this growth rate can only go north. The Supreme Court has asked the Delhi Government to move its entire bus fleet to CNG by April 2001. A decision on diesel- run taxis is also under consideration. But more concerted efforts to fight air pollution than merely banning a single fuel are necessary to give Indias choked capital a timely breather.
