Business

"You Can't Tell Computers From Humans In 50 Years"

On issues ranging from 21st century computers to the revenue model for the Net to the challenges facing the entrepreneur of tomorrow...

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"You Can't Tell Computers From Humans In 50 Years"
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As the first CEO of Sun Microsystems, Vinod Khosla became the first Indian in 1982 to break the glass ceiling in cyber heaven. The IIT-Delhi and Stanford Business School alumnus is now a renowned venture capitalist with Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers and is generally considered to be one of the 10 most influential people in Silicon Valley. He spoke to Sandipan Deb on a host of issues, ranging from 21st century computers to the revenue model for the Net to the challenges facing the entrepreneur of tomorrow. Excerpts:

You have possibly had the most successful career among Silicon Valley Indians. Was there any quality peculiarly Indian that helped you achieve what you have achieved?
Work ethic and a low expectation of quick results. I also got used to working with very little in the way of resources.

There's a widely held view that while an Indian at home is often lazy and an underachiever, he/she is a different person abroad...
I'm not sure I agree with that. I'd say hard work isn't the issue. Rather, it's using initiative to see all the possibilities and to believe that a lot more is achievable. I've always wondered why in a typical Indian household people don't paint their own house if they can't afford to hire someone for it. I see it happening here (in the US) all the time!

As to Indians abroad, we unfortunately skim the cream - the people who go to our best schools, end up at the top and hence get scholarships abroad - and they end up outside. Naturally, these people will do well, especially in a nourishing, role-model-rich, and facilitative environment like the US. It truly allows people to be all they can be - that's the best thing about the US.

Does India lose with over 50 per cent of IIT-ians emigrating to the US? What should it do to keep them back?
The only thing that can be done in this global economy is to give them the opportunity to reach their potential. We're well beyond the salve days. I suppose we could ask people to repay the subsidy for their education if they leave India.

What qualities are vital for the successful entrepreneur of tomorrow?
Continuous education, access to the environment on the Net, and creativity combined with a strong overview of technology. Understanding of technology is key, independent of which business you are in - computers or groceries. Witness the new Nike offering (nikeID.com) to make custom shoes for you or Amazon in the book business or the success of Charles Schwaab as a broker.... Most strategies will be driven by technology.

As a venture capitalist, what's more important to you - the prospective entrepreneur or his/her idea?
The person is far more important and judging people is an art! It's what we do most often. There are plenty of ideas around but not many people to make them happen.

Silicon Valley is a natural ecosystem generating ideas, entrepreneurs and wealth. Can we replicate it in India?
It's hard to do but can be done. Start by tapping into the infrastructure in Silicon Valley. Net access and a cheap telecom infrastructure is the best single inexpensive (relatively) thing we can do. Compared to education and direct investment, a telecom infrastructure will impact all businesses positively, by enabling Indian entrepreneurs to access the outside world. It unleashes the power of the motivated.

There's a view that the software sector has done so well because it was never part of a five-year plan. Now we have a policy and a ministry dedicated to infotech. Will it help?
I suspect the view is right. However, a focus on technology and visibility, so that there's more questioning and ideas, will help. So will a focus on infrastructure. I just hope it does not become a bureaucratic mess. I favour the focus if the approach is one of competition, enablement and letting foreign companies play an unconstrained role. It's easier to do in this segment as the local market is relatively small. We have a small company called Elance.com. It's companies like these that will help leverage the potential of this kind of technology and build global marketplaces where Indians can participate on an equal basis.

We hear talks of ubiquitous computing, wearable computers and nanotechnology breakthroughs that will radically change 21st century computers. How much of this is achievable, say in the next 10-20 years?
All this is real and will happen. Heavier technology is there. But you also see beginnings of other business models that are enabled by the Net like asps with companies like Corio and StarOffice from Sun. It'll be overestimated in the short run (5 years) and underestimated as to its impact in the long run (10-20 years). Within 50 years, it will be hard to tell computers from humans. You won't be able to tell if you are talking to your wife or a computer "xerox" of her even if you know her very well! Defining a human being will be the hardest thing in the next century! Movies like The Matrix won't be science fiction any more.

The World Bank's latest Human Development Report warns the Net could foster greater inequality between information haves and have-nots, with proficiency in English a key divider, and a hegemony of rich nations, especially the US, over the knowledge delivery system...
I agree with more dichotomy but it won't be along the lines of the rich and the poor. It will be based on motivated and unmotivated people. Most people will have access. Participants in information economy will have bigger opportunities. In true capitalist fashion, I'd rather enable people (independent of background) than force equality. The best thing the world has going is motivation and initiative. Give people the tools to reach their potential and let them determine their fate.

I agree that English will be a dominant language and I see no problem with that. Regionalism is a bad idea, and fosters division, conflict, pettiness and disrespect for others. Maybe, we'll someday be just world citizens and countries will disappear. It will resolve a lot of issues! Of course, it's fairly unlikely in the next 100 years but technology will force us in that direction.... Traditional wars will become less important and the new era wars will be one of information and economic powers. The US has an unfair advantage here.

No one seems to have yet got a hang of the right revenue model for the Net. Amazon.com still loses money as do many high-profile start-ups...
Why do companies have to make money today to be valuable? That's old linear thinking. There are a lot of companies that don't deserve their valuations. But value can be achieved in many ways. If I collected all the diamonds in the world, I'd have no "income" but I'd have a lot of "assets". Would my company be worth nothing because I have no income? A lot of Net companies are collecting assets. They have to be measured with a new set of metrics. But I agree the metrics in use today result in mis-valuations.

Given our spending power, can an A-grade chip be made for, say Rs 100 in the near future for India?
All countries of the world have to play by the same rules. Custom technologies for niches like India will not work as a rule (though I'm sure there will be exceptions).

Isn't the Netizen compromising on privacy as he reveals information about himself through his digital trails?
People will sell privacy for better deals and others will pay extra to keep their privacy. There will be a continuous spectrum of choices but it will be driven by the consumer. As it should be!

Recently, Peter Drucker said the software and new media industries are spawning a new kind of slavery - of biggies bodyshopping workers from Third World...
Slavery is when people have no choice. Here Indian engineers are being offered better jobs than they can get anywhere else so they are choosing to take these jobs! If they were not offered the jobs, some idiot like Drucker would call it discrimination!

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