The world is believed to have had dreadful catastrophic extinctions in the past and, today with so many nuclear bombs piled up, the ultimate destruction does not seem inconceivable. Ambassador Rajiv Dogra’s book War Time takes us through the contemporary geopolitical developments of the 21st century to give a sense as to whether the apocalypse is finally upon us.
Ambassador Dogra's erudite narration of geopolitical developments stems from his long distinguished diplomatic career and scholarly reflections. He draws the reader’s attention to the ongoing geo-political churning where outcomes could potentially redraw the international order. His persuasive assertion about the imperceptible decline of the West is based on inevitable trends—two exasperating wars of the last century, prolonged Cold War, demographic deficit, military adventures in West Asia, migration flows, etc. The waning American hegemony, the author opines, will likely give in to significant accommodation and adjustments.
The book analyses various geopolitical situations and challenges confronting them. The diminution of Europe is attributed to its fallacy of unwittingly pushing its industry and technology to the ‘factory of the world’, and, more recently, allowing the Chinese BRI investments into Europe that further weakened the links within. Today, Europe, caught between an assertive China, a revisionist Russia and an erratic America, cannot guarantee its own security much as the French President Emmanuel Macron would like to believe. In the Gulf, Saudi’s ambition to dominate the region clashes with Iran’s vision for it. Islamism that replaced Arab nationalism has become a potent tool to help consolidate the newfound oil wealth of the Gulf Sheikdoms. A nuclear Pakistan obsessed with maintaining a proxy war with India could prove to be a formidable challenge in future.
The rise of China, Dogra argues, owes much to the US policy of appeasement towards China, which it sought to use as a counterweight to the Soviet Union during the Cold War. In doing so, the West led itself into the Thucydides trap, quite oblivious to China’s strategy of ‘biding its time and hiding its strength’, designed to restore the glory of its Middle Kingdom. The author notes that the gap in the strategic parity between the two powers will be filled in by a multipolar world constituted by emerging economies that will play a stabilising role on vital issues. Their increasing numbers will only strengthen their bargaining power to be able effectively seek persuasion and accommodation from the big powers.
The book analyses with pragmatism the shifting geo-political and economic weight towards the Indo-Pacific region, which sees it as a potential theatre of major conflict. In this configuration, Dogra thinks, the West over-values India’s role and underestimates the politico-economic interdependence of China with the region. He would like India to be more actively engaged with the region and its ‘Look East’ policy, occasionally served as a placard during high-level visits, should seek higher trade and economic integration.
The author points to the growing dangers to liberal democracy and individual freedoms emanating from within the state, more directly from authoritarianism, technology, and terrorism, as well as due to increasing intolerance of the other’s beliefs, cultures, traditions, etc. The unsuspecting intrusive age of all-embracing surveillance can be a potent tool in the hands of the state against its own citizens. Similarly, AI technologies could lead to an unprecedented boom but could spell catastrophic doom, if rubbed in the wrong way. The author laments that retreat of ‘universal civilisation’ and ‘multiculturalism’, based on the concept of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam (Sanskrit for The world is one family), is happening at a time when the world is fully interlocked.
The author’s prognosis of a major contestation in the not-so-distant future is situated in the South China Sea. The compelling logic portends China’s proclivity to fight one or possibly two major wars before 2035, either with Taiwan or India before the major US-China war. The ongoing crisis in Ukraine presents an ominous picture where much is at stake for the West. Repulsing the Russian aggression assumes primacy, but a prolonged simmering conflict could render the US too exhausted and insolvent to take on a fight in South China Sea simultaneously. Not defending Taiwan or Japan is not an option, for it could run the risk of undermining the US global hegemony, and a retrieve from there could alter permanently the geostrategic balance.
In the emerging scenario, India would have to reckon with unacceptable risks of having to fight two adversaries simultaneously on either side. The author advocates India developing credible options and capabilities for blunting any aggression or misadventure. Its effective response should go beyond the usual ‘fateful attitude’ and India's foreign policy, currently trapped in linguistic swamp, ought to be pragmatic. Decreasing dependence on foreign defence equipment would enhance India’s real strategic autonomy.
In the decade of War Time ahead, preparation for war might be necessary to avoid it. The war is not about right or wrong, it is all about who is left behind. Dogra pins hope on diplomacy to be able to manage conflicts through compromise, conciliation and common ground. The world needs to keep reminding itself that history is a consequence of its choice and also responsibility.
(The author is an officer in the Indian Foreign Service Officer)
