Results for the high-octane assembly elections in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir, which took place through phases in September and October, and will be out on Tuesday, October 8, as counting of votes takes place from 8 am.
Several pollsters revealed their projections for both Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana on October 5, indicating a change in power in Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Haryana and a possible hung cabinet in Jammu and Kashmir but with an edge to the Congress-National Congress alliance.
During the Lok Sabha election exit polls, the projections by the pollsters were way different than the actual results leading to people and politicians question the value of the predictions. The pollsters predicted BJP to win nearly 400 seats in Lok Sabha but the party ended up winning 240 seats.
Nevertheless, exit polls are part of the election coverage and several pollsters share their assumptions based on surveys done by them at polling stations by interacting with the voters and in several other ways to understand the trend of the results.
The exit polls are never a definite prediction of the results but captures the sentiment of the public as they engage in the electoral process.
Haryana Assembly Elections Exit Polls
The Haryana assembly elections were held in a single phase on October 5, 2024 and the votes will be counted today. Chief Minister and BJP candidate Nayab Singh Saini currently lead the 90-seat assembly.
The major parties aiming for the CM seat are BJP, Congress, Aam Aadmi Party, Jannayak Janta Party-Azad Samaj Party alliance.
'Dainik Bhaskar' predicted the Congress getting 44-54 seats and the BJP 15-29 seats in the 90-member Haryana Assembly. The C-Voter-India Today polls gave Congress 50-58 seats and the BJP 20-28 seats in Haryana, while the Republic Bharat-Matrize polls put the Congress tally even higher at 55-62 seats as against the BJP's 18-24.
The Red Mike-Datansh exit poll gave the Congress 50-55 seats in Haryana and the BJP at 20-25, while Dhruv Research pegged the Congress at 50-64 and the BJP at 22-32.
Peoples' Pulse exit poll gave the Congress 49-60 seats and the BJP 20-32 seats in Haryana. Most exit polls pegged the INLD's tally higher than that of the JJP, while others were seen getting up to 10 seats.
| Pollster | BJP | Congress | Others |
| Dainik Bhaskar | 15-29 | 44-54 | 4-10 |
| Peoples' Pulse | 20-32 | 49-60 | 3-5 |
| Republic-Matrize poll | 18-24 | 55-62 | 2-5 |
| India Today-CVoter | 20-28 | 50-58 | 10-14 |
| News24-Chanakya | 18-24 | 55-62 | |
| Dhruv Research | 50-64 | 22-32 | 4-8 |
| Red Mike-Datansh | 20-25 | 50-55 |
The BJP has governed Haryana since 2014, led by Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar. Following a successful 2019 election, they formed a coalition with the JJP, appointing Dushyant Singh Chautala as deputy chief minister.
However, in March this year, both Khattar and Chautala stepped down ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, paving the way for Nayab Singh Saini, an influential OBC leader, to take over as chief minister.
The JJP subsequently ended its alliance with the BJP and joined in alliance with ASP later.
Meanwhile, the Congress party is aiming to regain power, with former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda spearheading their election campaign.
Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Elections Exit Polls
The assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir took place through three phases (September 18, 25 and October 1). This is the first time the union territory is voting since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2014.
The major parties who are aiming to regain power in J&K are BJP, National Conference- Congress alliance, People's Democratic Party and some other parties are also running in several seats along with independent candidates.
The India Today-CVoter survey have put the National Conference-Congress alliance at 40-48 seats and the BJP at 27-32 seats in the 90-member assembly of the Union Territory.
Dainik Bhaskar pegged the National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance at 35-40 and the BJP at 20-25 in Jammu and Kashmir, while Axis My India polls gave NC-Congress between 35 and 45 seats, the BJP in the range of 24-34 and others 4-10 seats.
Peoples' Pulse saw the NC-Congress alliance getting 46-50 seats as against the BJP's 23-27, while Republic-Gulistan put the NC-Congress tally at 31-36 as against the BJP's 28-30.
In different polls, the PDP was seen winning between five and 12 seats, while others were also seen bagging four-16 seats.
| Pollster | BJP | NC-Cong | PDP | Others |
| People's Pulse | 23-27 | 46-50 | 7-11 | 4-5 |
| India Today-CVoter | 27-32 | 40-48 | 6-12 | 6-11 |
| Republic-Gulistan | 28-30 | 31-36 | 5-7 | 8-16 |
| Dainik Bhaskar | 20-25 | 35-40 | 4-7 | 12-18 |
Some pollsters predict that BJP will perform better in Jammu compared to the Kashmir region.
India Today-CVoter predicts that in Jammu region NC and Congress alliance may win 11-15 seats while BJP may secure 27-31 seats.
And for Kashmir region, according to CVoter, the NC alliance might be able to score well will 29-33 seats and in contrary BJP may win one seat. PDP and other parties are expected to gather more seats in Kashmir region compared to Jammu, as per CVoter.
Some of the prominent candidates who were in fray in Jammu and Kahsmir are - Ravinder Raina (BJP, Nowshera), Choudhary Lal Singh (Congress, Basohli), Sham Lal Sharma, (BJP, Jammu North), Raman Bhalla, (Congress, RS Pura – Jammu South), Jugal Kishore Sharma (independent, Shri Mata Vaishno Devi) Pawan Khajuria (independent, Udhampur East), Raman Bhalla (R S Pura), Usman Majid (Bandipora), Pawan Khajuria (independent, Udhampur East), Nazir Ahmad Khan (Gurez) and Taj Mohiuddin (Uri).
