Was it overconfidence among the BJP voters, and the cadres or overall public disillusionment against the political class that got reflected in the low voter turnout in Uttarakhand, a mountain state with five Parliamentary seats—all swept by the BJP in 2014 and 2019 riding a strong Modi-wave.
The state went to polls in a single phase on April 19 in the first phase of the 18th general elections posting a low voters’ turn-out of 57.22 per cent across five Lok Sabha seats. A notable decline of 4.66 per cent against 61.88 per cent in 2019 Parliamentary polls has left the parties guessing about the outcome of the polls on June 4—when counting of the votes happen in the state.
Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami, who is confident about BJP’s hat-trick (to win all five seats) blames it on the Congress which he says failed to mobilise its cadres. In fact, the Congress workers "did not turn up" to vote for the party candidates whereas the BJP cadres had responded overwhelmingly.
“A significant dip in the overall turnout was a result of non-participation of the Congress and demoralisation in the rank and file,” he says.
There is another side to the story also as Uttarakhand had also witnessed state assembly polls in 2022 for 70 seats posting a voters' turn-out of 65.41 per cent.
The initial turn-out in the April 19 Lok Sabha polls was reported to be 53 per cent till 5 pm in the state but gradually after the arrival of the EVMs and polling parties from the polling booths in topographically tough areas, the overall voters turn-out was 57.22 per cent, confirms Mastu Dass, assistant Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) Uttarakhand.
As per figures available, the lowest turn-out of 48.82 per cent was recorded in Almora (Reserve) parliamentary constituency in Uttarakhand which comprises districts of Almora, Bageshwar, Champawat and Pithoragarh in the Kumaon hills.
“In fact, there was a stark difference in the voters’ turn-out in the plains of Uttarakhand and mountain areas like Tehri Garhwal and Pauri areas. One of the reasons was a lot of Hindu marriages happening in the Garhwal and Kumaon regions. The hill voters have to travel long distances to wedding venues. They usually prefer to stay at least two-three days and eventually skip their date with the polling day,” says Jay Singh Rawat, a senior Journalist at Dehradun.
Haridwar Parliamentary constituency witnessing a keen contest between former Chief Minister and BJP leader Trivendra Singh Rawat and Virendra Rawat—son of former Congress Chief Minister Harish Rawat recorded highest voter turn-out of 63.53 per cent. But this was shockingly lower than 71.6 per cent in the 2019 polls.
But two other parliamentary constituencies – Tehri Garhwal (53.76 per cent) and Pauri Garwhal (52.42 per cent), which the BJP had targeted by holding Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rally at Rishikesh had a notable dip in the polling percentage.
However, Nainital –Udamsingh Nagar constituency recorded a higher voter turn out of 62.47 per cent. This was much higher in 2019 at 68.4 per cent in 2014.
Rawat gives another reason for the dip in the polling percentage. It’s absence of any wave and lack of enthusiasm in the elections as compared to 2014 and 2019 Parliamentary elections.
“There were only two opinions in the poll—one strongly in favour of Modi (Prime Minister Narendra Modi) and other against him,” says Rawat.
Uttarakhand has been witnessing mass migration from the hills for past some years due to various factors including unemployment, lack of basic facilities –education, health, water and roads infrastructure. The dip in the turn out can be easily contributed to this. Some of the villages in Uttarakhand have been declared as “ghost villages” since they have been abandoned by the families.
In the past 10 years, 1053 new villages have been added to the list of ghost villages, mainly in the hills of Pauri Garhwal, Bageshwar, Pittoragarh, Uttarkashi, Champawat, Chamoli and Rudraprayag as per findings of Uttarakhand Rural Development and Migration Commission, set-up by the government in 2017. The Election Commision has deleted a large number of polling booths as no voter came to vote during 2009 and 2014 elections. This was also a contributing factor for low turn-out.
Also, there were reports of poll boycotts in some villages as they lacked basic facilities of road, water, electricity and health.
Anoop Nautiyal, a social activist, shares his serious concern on the gradual decline in the voter turn out in the state because of apathy of the voters towards political class.
“There are composite of factors leading to sharp decline in the voter turn out in Uttarakhand. In fact, if one goes through the data, Uttarakhand has been posting the lowest polling percentage among the Himalayan states," he says.
The polling percentage in Uttarakhand was 61.88 per cent in 2019 Lok Sabha polls as compared to 72.42 per cent in Himachal. Even states like Sikkim recorded 81.81 per cent, Arunachal Pradesh 82.11 per cent, Tripura 82.4 per cent and Nagaland 83 per cent. Similarly, even in 2014 when many states voted overwhelmingly (due to the Modi wave), Uttarakhand turn out was 61.6 per cent.
Nautiyal says, “Key factors this time beside migration and wedding reason, also included public disillusionment with ruling dispensation and complete lack of public connect with the political parties. The issues which the two main parties—Congress and BJP, tried to raise had no link with masses. They were not real issues concerning the people. These issues included unemployment, inflation, displacement of project affected people and climate change."
As per him, approximately 35 lakh voters did not turn up to the polling booths despite efforts and claims of the election machinery to raise the voting percentage from 65 to 70 per cent. "This is a matter of grave concern for the society in general, and individuals like me particularly," he says.
Even in 2009, when the Congress won all the five seats the turn out was 53.43 per cent.
