After a long gap, the Kashmir Valley seems to be charged up because of the assembly elections. Happening after almost a decade, this is the first election after the abrogation of Article 370, which altered the Valley’s relationship with the Union of India. After the dates of the elections were announced, there were doubts and uncertainty with different stakeholders scattered all over the political chessboard. Now, after the conclusion of the elections, there is an atmosphere of uncertainty concerning the outcome, which will bring to the fore the altered political realities in the Valley.
Over the past three decades, voting in the Valley has largely been a domain of traditional party loyalties with the fair success of boycott calls from separatist organisations. This election seems to have changed the trend. The centrality of public opinion and opinion centrism were visible throughout. People were politically engaged in the electoral process right from the time when the poll schedule was announced because of the presence of new faces, ideas and representation.
Two phenomena have been the most talked about this election. One is the emergence of the Engineer Rashid factor. Earlier this year, the parliamentary elections threw a major upset with former Chief Minister and Union Minister Omar Abdullah being defeated by the lesser-known Rashid, who at the time of elections was jailed with serious allegations of terror funding under UAPA. His victory signalled a changed political battleground. His son campaigned on his behalf, with ‘jail’ being the battle cry. The term jail seems to have echoed a sense of urgency among the locals, some of whom have been jailed across prisons in the country.
Furthermore, Rashid seems to have a clean image—he has served twice as MLA. His statements and speeches usually carry a pinch of soft separatism. One may argue that the notion of being vocal on the issue has made people think of him as comparatively a better choice.
Some people were surprised after the verdict because they were expecting Abdullah or Sajad Lone to win from the Baramulla seat. On the other hand, since both of them are vested highly in the politics of the state and have a history of certain party backing them led to a considerable bunch of the population to think otherwise.
The massive victory of Rashid was described like this by Abdullah in a tweet on social media platform X on June 4, 2024: “I think it’s time to accept the inevitable. Congratulations to Engineer Rashid for his victory in North Kashmir. I don’t believe his victory will hasten his release from prison nor will the people of North Kashmir get the representation they have a right to but the voters have spoken and in a democracy that’s all that matters.” This was followed by another tweet on X by Abdullah on June 6, 2024, in which he quoted a few lines from an article by Praveen Swami on June 5, 2024, describing Rashid’s win as something that will “empowering secessionism” in the Valley.
Similarly, a tweet shared on X by Mehbooba Mufti on July 1, 2024, read: “It’s a shame that Engineer Rashid has been behind bars since 2019 on baseless charges. Relieved to know he’s been allowed to take oath as a Member Parliament but his imprisonment itself is an utter travesty of justice in the first place. GOI must release him immediately along with countless other Kashmiri men languishing in jails”.
Rashid’s win in the Lok Sabha elections did not end there. A month ago, when the ECI declared assembly elections in the Valley, it again brought him to the limelight. While some people speculated that he would be released, others believed it won’t happen. Finally, ahead of the assembly polls in the Valley, Rashid was released on interim bail after around five years. Soon after, scepticism scaled up in the Valley. The narrative shifted to how Rashid managed to get bail during the elections. The new trend of labelling Rashid pro-BJP emerged. The concern was shared by both Abdullah and Mufti. While Mufti called his party a “proxy” for the BJP, Abdullah claimed Rashid’s bail was meant to “fetch votes and not serve people”.
Although Rashid has managed to change the current dynamics of the state, analysers should not turn a blind eye to the other new faces. Mufti’s daughter Iltija was launched by the PDA as the young face of the party, primarily to connect with the young generation. Her presence in campaign rallies and on social media platforms have added to their political stage. Although not a new face in politics, Waheed Parra has also managed to make himself more prominent.
Thus, the conduct of elections after a long spell has or aims to bring new dynamics to the politics of the Valley. Some figures who were dormant for a while made a comeback; new faces were spotted. What political challenges these new/early dormant figures will face or how will they contribute to the new political situation emerging in the Valley remains to be seen once election results are declared. Will there be a status quo? There will be little or no variation?
Thanks to the presence of the Internet, all political parties used social media extensively in this election to post manifestos and pictures from their rallies.
The elections in Kashmir are a phenomenon that can be explained by using certain existing theoretical prisms. The use of cyber technology intensified in this election. In today's tech-driven world, it’s easier than ever to observe and analyse any event—including elections—right from the initial stages of candidate selection, filing nominations, and presenting manifestos to election campaigns.
The entire process unfolds at our fingertips. When the political atmosphere intensifies, cyber technology accelerates the race. This trend was visible in the assembly elections where the use of technology—especially social media—has reached new heights. While technology may have played a role in past elections, the extent to which it is now driving party and individual narratives has dramatically increased.
Both party-backed candidates and independents understand the power of human emotion, knowing exactly when to provoke it—and social media has become their primary tool. Social media in this sense has aided political players a lot everywhere and, in the Valley too. As argued by Sean Parker, Facebook's founding president: “Facebook’s founders knew they were creating something addictive that exploited “a vulnerability in human psychology” from the outset.” In the Valley, candidates and party workers have rapidly adopted this approach, using a steady stream of tweets, posts, and videos to advance their agendas. A prominent party figure posts a few lines or a video to promote their party’s rhetoric or criticise their opponents, sparking an online debate among supporters and detractors alike. Today, the heated confrontations once confined to physical rallies have moved online—and with even greater intensity.
For example, Abdullah frequently prefers to convey his thoughts through X, also followed by Mufti, Iltija, Parra, and others. This follows retweets, comments, etc, making it all the more charging. This social media world seems to expand digital promises or thoughts. For example, a page titled JKPDPian on X has several tweets, and I just quote one, which writes: “Voices rise in support of Shabir Ahmad Mir, calling for progress, development, and a brighter future for all.”
Similarly, a recent tweet by Iltija says: “Touched by the love and affection at Kupwara where we campaigned for Fayaz Mir sahab. Nothing makes me happier than to see women and young teenaged girls flock to our meetings.” These are just a few examples where we see narratives of growth, progress, women, teenage girls, etc used. And these digital thoughts or statements don't go in vain completely. They are carefully chosen words to drive the digital audience. These digital dynamics are increasingly shaping public opinion, influencing political decisions that feel “right”. These seemingly ‘small and invisible’ patterns can gradually exacerbate the political situation.
The political atmosphere in the Valley is unstable. The post-election political landscape would be interesting with much less power with the government, and a cry for statehood as a future goal. The political goalpost in Valley seems to swing from separatism to autonomy to statehood. Will this change affect the day-to-day political reality in the Valley, which seems to have been the thinking behind the abrogation of Article 370, and downgrading of the state to union territory, alter the course of conflict in Kashmir is something that needs to be watched upon.
The writer has pursued bachelor’s in political science from Miranda House and Master’s from Jamia, Delhi.
(Views expressed are personal)
