Bharatiya Janata Party’s stunning victory in the Maharashtra assembly elections has swept away two of the leading political lighthouses --veteran Nationalist Congress Party leader Sharad Pawar and Shiv Sena’s Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray.
The two political stalwarts have navigated several rocky shores and undercurrents of the state’s regional politics, but the humiliating defeat in the crucial assembly elections left them adrift.
Part of the Congress-led Mahavikas alliance, Pawar’s NCP and Sena UBT factions won just 10 and 20 seats respectively, making it their worst performance ever. Pawar’s nephew Yugendra lost by a huge margin in his hometown constituency of Baramati against his uncle Ajit Pawar.
The electoral loss is yet another blow after the parties were left divided by the rebellion of Sena’s Eknath Shinde and NCP’s Ajit Pawar. The split robbed Pawar and Thackeray of the party’s original name and election symbol while also challenging their legitimacy as the real heirs.
The debate about Shinde and Pawar being traitors and breaking their political families is no longer an issue among the voters. The assembly poll results, political experts say, are a clear indicator of which Sena and NCP factions the people of Maharashtra are putting their weight behind.
Does that mean this is the end of Pawar and Thackeray’s political existence?
According to political pundits, the assembly election was the last one to be led by Pawar, who at the age of 83 is already in his sunset years. Thackeray, who has been the leader of the party since 2012, is also ailing. There remains a big question mark on whether the two giants will lead from the front in the next Lok Sabha and assembly elections to be held in 2029.
The only rejoicing factor for Sena UBT is the victory of Uddhav’s son Aditya Thackeray from Worli and his cousin Varun Sardesari from Bandra constituency-- who are being projected as the next generation of Sena leaders.
The election results were fatal for Uddhav’s cousin Raj Thackeray too. His Maharashtra Navnirman Sena party, founded as an alternative to Shiv Sena in 2006, did not win any seat. Raj’s son Amit Thackeray, who contested from the Mahim constituency, faced a heavy defeat and came third.
Sanjay Patil, research scholar specialising in elections and regional politics at Mumbai University, says the shocking assembly elections are demoralising for the NCP and Sena UBT, but the defeat is not unsalvageable.
“It is not easy to fight elections against a powerful opponent like the BJP with limited financial resources and under tremendous pressure when your original party and its leaders are taken apart. Thackeray and Pawar held their ground and stood tall to fight the BJP,” he says.
Patil emphasises that the assembly results have to be analysed in the context of Sena and NCP’s strength of sitting MLAs after the split.
Out of the 56 winning MLAs of the undivided Sena in the 2019 elections, Shinde walked out with the majority of 41 MLAs, leaving Thackeray with 15 MLAs. Ajit Pawar took away 41 of the 54 sitting NCP MLAs, leaving behind 13 MLAs in his uncle’s camp.
Getting the incumbent MLAs to win against the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance comprising the breakaway Shinde’s Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP factions, was no easy task, Patil observes. “To retain these numbers, when they have nothing influential in their camp is not a poor performance. Both parties will need to work on strengthening their organisation and cadre from the ground.”
The immediate challenge for both leaders will now be to keep their flock together and ensure the winning candidates do not switch to the ruling alliance
Vaibhav Purandare, author of Bal Thackeray and the Rise of Shiv Sena, says Thackeray will also need to resolve the “ideological contradictions,” which have damaged his support base and created tensions within party functionaries.
Sena (UBT)’s dilution of the core ideological agenda-- the parochial sons-of-the-soil ‘Marathi manoos’ and reframing of aggressive Hindutva into moderate secular Hindutva-- has taken away a large chunk of its voters. The traditional Marathi vote bank in the urban centres of Mumbai, Pune and Nashik has moved on with Sena’s Shinde faction, and the ones clamouring for Hindutva have embraced the BJP.
The mobilisation of Maharashtra’s Muslim community in favour of Thackeray’s Sena faction during the Lok Sabha elections has also added to the unease on the ideological front. Consolidation of Muslim votes helped the Sena and the Mahavikas alliance win around 30 Lok Sabha constituencies.
“Thackeray’s secular Hindutva and pro-Muslim stance are part of the Sena’s image problem. He will need to counter these projections,” Purandare says.
In the past, Sena has faced severe setbacks including failure to gain maximum votes in elections and rebellion from star leaders. Making a comeback will not be impossible this time, Purandare adds, but it remains an uphill task.
Thackeray will have an opportunity on a platter to showcase his party’s strength in Mumbai through the civic elections. The impending elections to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation are likely to be announced soon, now that the BJP has an overwhelming majority in the state.
The BMC is the richest civic body in the country with a budget of Rs 50,000 crore. The last civic elections were held in 2017 and its term ended in March 2022 after which the civic body has functioned solely on the decisions of the Municipal Commissioner who is appointed as an Administrator by the state government.
The undivided Sena earned its stripes as a strong political contender by winning the BMC elections in the 70s. From 1985 onwards, the city’s mayor came from Sena, except on four occasions. Weilding power over the BMC paved the way for the party to establish its strong grip on Mumbai-- the country’s financial nerve centre and a global business district.
Taking Mumbai’s political reins from the Thackeray family has long been on BJP’s agenda, which until 2019 was Sena’s junior partner in governing the BMC.
Winning the BMC elections will be equally crucial for the BJP and Shinde’s Sena faction as for Sena UBT. The assembly win has emboldened the prospects of both BJP and Shinde Sena faction, who will likely leave no stone unturned to secure the BMC.
“The BMC elections pose a formidable challenge for Thackeray but it is also an opportunity to put the assembly defeat behind and make the course correction, strengthen the organisation, and keep the loyalist corporators together,” Purandare says.
Speculations are rife in political circles that to redeem their parties from the embarrassing loss, NCP’s Sharad Pawar and Sena’s UBT factions will merge with the breakaway Ajit Pawar and Shinde factions.
But less than 24 hours after the results, Sharad Pawar shut down such baseless rumours in his first media interaction at Karad, in Satara district. “After seeing such a result, one would have sat at home, but I am not one of those who sit at home. I will focus my energies on preparing the next generation of political workers and encourage them to work for people.”
