April 26, 2024, was the longest polling day in the history of Kerala. It was 11:50 PM when the last voter left the polling booth at the Mudappilavil LP School in Vadakara constituency where Kerala’s internationally acclaimed ‘Corona Slayer’ K K Shailaja contested. Despite such a long day of polling, the voter turnout did not meet the expectations. According to the Election Commission, the State saw 71.27 percent votes polled, 6.64 percent lower compared to the 2019 voter turnout- the all-time high in the last 30 years.
The low voter turnout came out to be a surprise to everyone — not only to political parties but to all the stake holders — political commentators, activists and the media as this was perceived as the most crucial election deciding the future of the country. Kerala kicked off the campaign well in advance in January 2024 and lasted for three and half months. When the political parties in other States were involved in seat sharing discussions, Kerala took a long leap ahead by announcing the candidates in February. Both LDF and UDF brought the best out of their organisational machinery across Kerala and the BJP did their level best in a few constituencies where the party was fighting to win. Despite all these, the polling was driven by a certain lack of enthusiasm bringing the voter turnout 6.64 percent lower.
Many factors can be attributed to Kerala's low voter turnout in addition to the probable indifference among the youth who might have lost trust in political parties. The unusual heat of summer could probably be one reason that kept people inside shades between 12 and 3 during the day.
In 2019, amidst a wave favouring the Congress-led UDF, Kerala saw a surge in voter turnout, reaching 77.84 percent, a 3.4 percent increase from previous elections. This surge was attributed to various factors, including the Sabarimala controversy and minority consolidation influenced by Rahul Gandhi's candidacy in Wayanad. However, this time around, the dip in turnout is significant, sparking concerns for the Congress and its allies as they await the outcome on June 4.
Historically speaking, the low voter turnout would be a bless to the Left Democratic Front as data shows. When the voter turnout touched an all-time high in 30 years in 2019 at 77.84 percent, UDF swept 19 out of twenty seats leaving LDF at a heavy loss. The swing in favour of UDF was created with many factors including the candidacy of Rahul Gandhi in Wayanad. The impact of Sabarimala was yet another factor that went against LDF.
Though LDF and UDF take turns in power in every five years, Congress-led UDF consistently holds an advantage over the Left in Lok Sabha elections. Kerala's voters are known for their political awareness and nuanced voting patterns, often employing different criteria when casting their ballots in various elections. Over the past four decades, the Congress and its coalition partners have shown remarkable performance in Kerala in Lok Sabha polls, particularly when voter turnout approached or exceeded 75 percent. Conversely, when turnout hovered around 70 percent, the competition between the UDF and the CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) was typically neck and neck with Congress suffering a rout in 2004, winning no seats of its own.
Since the establishment of the current LDF and UDF coalitions in 1984, the political landscape in Kerala has seen fluctuating fortunes. The LDF gained prominence in only two elections, those of 1999 and 2004, while the UDF prevailed in 1984, 1989, 1991, 1998, 2009, 2014, and 2019. In 1996, both fronts secured ten seats each.
In 1984, following Indira Gandhi's assassination, the UDF, led by Congress, clinched seventeen out of twenty seats with a voter turnout of 77.12 percent. The trend continued in 1989 with the UDF winning 17 seats at a turnout of 79.30 percent. Despite a lower turnout of 73.32 percent in 1991 after Rajiv Gandhi's assassination, the UDF rode a wave of sympathy to win 18 seats. In 1996, with a turnout of 71.1 percent, the LDF made gains, securing ten seats. In 1998 the voter turnout was 70.66 but the UDF managed only a slight increase in seats, winning 11.
In 1999 the seat tally remained the same as 11-9 in favour of the UDF with a voter turnout of 70.19 percent. The UDF suffered its worst defeat in 2004, losing 18 seats with the Congress candidates sweeping all, while the LDF secured 17 seats and NDA one. The turnout for this election stood at 71.2 percent. In 2009, with a turnout of 73.5 percent, the UDF won 16 seats. In 2014, with a turnout of 73.9 percent, the UDF secured 12 seats. The trend reversed in 2019, with a high turnout of 77.84 percent, leading to the UDF winning 19 out of 20 seats.
Considering this pattern, the LDF is hopeful of winning at least ten seats this time around. Constituency-wise voter turnout calculations bolster this expectation, particularly in areas where the UDF traditionally holds sway and turnout has been lower. When the voter turnout is low, the cadre parties get advantage because the votes that go unpolled would probably be from the other side. Pathanamthitta constituency, the seat of Sabarimala where former finance Minister Dr. Thomas Issac contesting UDF’s sitting MP Anto Antory is an example. Pathanamthitta recorded the lowest polling 63. 35 percent which is a clear indication of the absence of enthusiasm among the UDF voters predominantly the Christian population that traditionally go only with the Congress. “The traditional UDF voters do not have a strong reason to go to the polling booths this time. The Rahul Gandhi factor has faded away. Compared to the left, Congress failed in taking categorical positions in issues such as CAA. Apparently, they keep away” says K J Jacob, a senior journalist and political commentator.
On the other side, the anti-incumbency factor against the Left Government has played a role according to the UDF camp. Though the low voter turnout is a real cause of concern, UDF is keeping fingers crossed considering the minority consolidation that historically went in favour of UDF.
BJP has not given up hopes even after the low voter turnout. In both the constituencies-Thiruvananthapuram and Thrissur, the polling has gone low in city based constituencies where BJP has powerful presence. Though this has been a cause of concern for the party, they keep up the hope that the party would open account this time.
