US President Joe Biden is stuck between the devil and the deep sea over Israel’s Gaza war. With presidential elections in November and slipping opinion polls ratings Biden needs to end Israel’s war on Gaza to shore up his chances at the hustings. Though Trump has been convicted on 34 charges of felony by a New York jury, that has not affected his chances as he is allowed to contest the elections and is giving Biden a run for his money in opinion polls. Trump’s popularity among Republican voters remains intact as his supporters' see the court action as political vendetta.
Biden is on a weak wicket. Apart from his age, his own Democratic support base is dwindling thanks to his iron-clad support for Israel. The pro-Palestinian campus protests sweeping through American universities is an indictment of his policy. Students shocked by the death and destruction in Gaza are calling for a stop to US arms supply to Israel. They accuse the Netanyahu government of genocide. Biden’s victory in the 2020 elections was largely fuelled by young voters and Blacks, this time anger against the administration’s blatant pro-Israel stand is turning voters off. Arab-Americans are also turning away. The progressive section within Biden’s Democratic party long demanded a halt to America’s pro-Israel stand. Die-hard liberals though the choice of Trump is equally daunting. Many may decide not to cast their vote.
President Biden is in a dilemma. His instinctive support for Israel soon after the October 7 attack by Hamas, his decision to fly out to Tel Aviv to show his support for was greatly appreciated by people facing a brutal terror attack. But the situation began to change once Israel began its massive bombing campaign and its indiscriminate killing of Palestinian civilians. Today eight months since the fighting began, with over 36,000 people killed international opinion has done an about-turn. The initial sympathy for Israel had given way to anger against what South Africa and many other nations of the Global South see as genocide.
The US has provided lethal bombs and weapons to Israel that are being used on the people of Gaza. Biden last month had stopped a shipment of bombs to Israel, but fearing consequences of alienating a large section of American the Biden administration notified Congress that the government would be sending over a billion dollars of arms to Israel. Why.
This is because of the enormous support for Israel among Americans. Besides the wealthy Jewish lobby fund the election kitty of many Republican and Democrat lawmakers. American Jews are rich and successful and have close connections with people in Israel. American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is a powerful lobbying group that advocates pro-Israel policies to the legislative and executive branches of the United States. But recently in March this year, more than 20 progressive advocacy groups formed a coalition to combat the growing influence of AIPAC. These groups believe that the growing dissent in Congress against Israel’s war in Gaza is being silenced by the AIPAC lobby. Not often has a war in which US does not have its troops on the ground become such an emotive issue in the US. Israel’s actions in Gaza and US support for Netanyahu has made Biden unpopular among large sections of students and youths in the country.
Getting a ceasefire in place in Gaza is of immense importance to Biden at the moment. A stop to the war will help to subdue the anger against the administration and give the Biden campaign a much-needed boost.
So it was not surprising that the President did just that on May 31. He announced what he termed as a "comprehensive new proposal" to end the fighting in Gaza. Biden dressed up the plan as a "roadmap to an enduring cease-fire and release of the hostages".
The proposal was in three parts. The first phase extending to six week was for a full and complete ceasefire; a withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza; a release of a number of hostages — including women, the elderly, the wounded — in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Remains of the dead would be handed over to their families. Palestinian civilians would return to their home in all areas of Gaza. Humanitarian assistance would be up to 600 trucks carrying aid to Gaza every day. The second phase was for Israel and Hamas would negotiate the necessary arrangements to get to a permanent end to hostilities. "There are a number of details to negotiate to move from phase one to phase two. Israel will want to make sure its interests are protected," Biden said while outlining the plan. The last phase of this ambitious plan was reconstruction of Gaza.
The surprise announcement was served as an Israeli peace plan that was submitted to the US. The President appeared to suggest that it was now up to Hamas to agree to the proposal that had been sent to Hamas though Qatar. Hamas did not take long to say yes they were open to the idea but had to study the plan in detail.
Very soon it was apparent that the ceasefire plan had not come from Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government. Though Israel did not call out Biden on this possibly not to embarrass him, Tel Aviv’s reaction was at best vague.
By making the plans public, Biden hoped to bind both Netanyahu and Hamas and mobilise public opinion in Israel to support the proposal. It is well known family members of hostages are angry with Netanyahu as they believe not enough has been done to rescue them. Instead the focus was on destroying Hamas and continuing the war.
But like several other proposals this too is unlikely to go through. Israel insists the war cannot stop till Hamas is completely exterminated. While Hamas now says that the plan is not acceptable unless Israel is ready to call for a permanent ceasefire and withdrawal from Gaza.
But Washington has not given up. Two top US officials are on their way to the Middle East to get regional allies and Israel and Hamas to do a re-think of the peace proposal. In the meantime civilians continue to bear the brunt. The latest is Israeli bombing of a UN-run school, where displaced people are now taking shelter. Israel claimed that it was a targeted attack on Hamas fighters. But on the ground 40 women and children were killed in Gaza.
Biden is likely to try to get the fighting to stop with renewed vigour as the election dates near, but with what success is open to question.
