With China playing the role of peacemaker between Iran and Saudi Arabia, it is but natural that the first meeting between the foreign ministers of the two countries on Thursday took place in Beijing. Both sides agreed to resume full diplomatic ties after seven long years. This development is expected to have a widespread impact on the power equations across West Asia, the dilution of US strength in the region, and the emergence of China as a global player. Israel, which has used the hiatus between the two countries to further its goal of isolating Iran, may have to re-think its strategy.
With this deal, China has indicated that it is now ready to play a more active role in international politics and step out of its neighbourhood. China is today the second most powerful country in the world and has integrated into the world economy since the reforms of 1979. From a time, just some decades back, when it was a low-cost factory to the world, to now, becoming a powerhouse in advanced technologies, China's rise has been phenomenal. Is President Xi Jinping now ready to assert China’s great power aspirations on the world stage?
China has taken the first steps toward realizing its ambitions. Whether things will play according to the script is not known yet, but if the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia leads to regional stability, and an end to the Yemen war, it would be a success for China. The breakthrough happened last month when an agreement was hammered out to initiate the process of reconciliation between the Sunni kingdom and its much larger Shia neighbour.
Since the Iranian revolution of 1979, the smaller Sunni powers had regarded Tehran and its nuclear ambitions as a threat to peace and to Arab hegemony. Saudi Arabia, along with its close ally, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), joined forces with Israel to thwart Iran’s nuclear ambitions. First, the three countries lobbied against the nuclear pact, called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed between the five nuclear powers – US, China, Russia, US, France and UK – and Germany, and later worked hard to disrupt it. But then US President Barack Obama would have none of it as he went ahead and signed the nuclear deal, which came into effect in 2016. The deal was seen as a singular foreign policy achievement of Obama’s second term in office.
Donald Trump as well as many Republican lawmakers had thrashed the idea of the deal. So, when Trump came to power, he walked away from the nuclear agreement with Iran, to the delight of Saudi Arabia, UAE and Israel. Today, when relations between Iran and the US are at the lowest ebb and Tehran is determined to go ahead with its nuclear program, China has succeeded in pulling out a surprise deal between the two former implacable foes.
The animosity between the two had led to a proxy war in Yemen and Lebanon and forced the Gulf sheikhdoms to choose sides. All Sunni powers opted to take sides. Most members of the Gulf Cooperation Council – all of them Sunni powers – chose to back Saudi Arabia, where the king holds the keys to Mecca and Medina – two of the most sacred shrines of the sect. Shia Iran was regarded as a threat to the stability of the region.
All that has changed in the last couple of years due to economic and strategic considerations. For one, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, generally known as MBS, who calls the shots in the kingdom, had gotten into an unending, resource-draining war in Yemen where the Houthi tribes backed by Iran continue to hold the capital city. The kingdom's relations with the new US government were uneasy, though Trump was seen as a friend. Much of the personal animosity was because of the 2018 murder of Saudi dissident and journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the kingdom's consulate in Istanbul. The murder was alleged directly to the Crown Prince’s order and as a candidate, Biden had threatened to take action and riled at Trump for doing nothing. Once he won the presidency, Biden naturally did not follow up on the promise, as Saudi Arabia had always been a close military and political ally of the US.
The US-Saudi relations had always been based on oil for security. While Saudis would keep oil flowing for the US, Washington was committed to providing Riyadh with a security umbrella. Billions had been provided by the US, and Saudis too bought large quantities of weapons from American companies. Yet, Washington’s pivot to the east, was of concern to the region, as the US moved some of its forces to the Indo-Pacific on the heels of China’s assertive moves in the South China Sea. MBS’s faith in the US had dwindled considerably, more so after the chaotic withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in 2021. When President Biden visited Riyadh in July last year, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, to call for ramping up oil production, the Saudis refused the request.
After several decades of sanctions, Iran’s economic situation is now dire and in need of friends in the neighbourhood. Behind-the-scenes attempts at repairing ties with Saudi Arabia had been on for some time but nothing had emerged. When President Xi Jinping visited Riyadh last December, the Saudis discussed Iran and their wish to mend ties. China, which has excellent ties with both Iran and Saudi Arabia, decided to take the initiative. The rest, as they say, is history.
