Beyond the rubble-strewn streets of Gaza, a web of alliances is shaping the Middle East's destiny. Yemen's Houthi rebels, once outliers in the regional conflict, have emerged as key players, launching bold attacks on Red Sea shipping.
The Houthis, a local rebel movement known as ‘Ansar Allah’, rose to prominence in Yemen, capturing a third of the country's territory and governing two-thirds of its population. Their journey began with a revolt against the internationally recognised government in 2011, culminating in their overthrow of the regime in 2014 and President Hadi fleeing to Saudi Arabia. By then, Yemen was plunged into a civil war, which continues with the frontlines mostly frozen. A Saudi-led coalition of Arab states aligned with the ousted president, launching airstrikes and imposing a blockade that resulted in a massive humanitarian crisis in Yemen. However, the Iran-backed Houthis were able to resist the Saudi-led coalition, which eventually backed off.
As Iran's ally, the Houthis became part of a broader ‘axis of resistance’, aiming to challenge Western influence in the region, particularly targeting the United States and Israel while engaging with groups like Hezbollah for military guidance and support.
After Israel’s war on Gaza following the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, the Houthis in solidarity with Palestinians decided to attack ships linked to Israel and the US to force a ceasefire and to end the war. “As soon as the Israeli military campaign against Hamas began in October last year, Iranian-backed Houthi militia in Yemen and Kata’ib Hezbollah in Iraq launched drones and missiles reaching Israeli borders and then the Houthis have been targeting shipping in the Red Sea”, says analyst Deepika Saraswat.
On November 18, they seized a cargo ship called the Galaxy Leader, which they have now turned into a tourist attraction for people in Yemen. The Houthis have targeted over 80 merchant vessels on the Red Sea with drones and missiles since October 2023. But looking at the impact of the crisis in the Red Sea on global trade one may wonder if the disruptive militia is benefitting from the chaos rather than inching towards a ceasefire in Gaza as they have attacked several ships linked with other countries including the UK and Greece-based companies.
The Houthis managed to create a terror-ridden pathway on the Red Sea, which is one of the busiest maritime routes across the globe. An estimated 12 per cent of global trade passes through the Red Sea every year, worth over $1tn (₹83 trillion). But many shipping firms have begun avoiding the area altogether. Hundreds of giant container ships, over 300 metres long, are opting for a lengthy detour around Africa instead of navigating the Red Sea and Suez Canal on their routes from Asia to Europe. Rerouting these large vessels presents major logistical challenges and is time consuming. The Red Sea being vital for global shipping, handles one-third of container traffic and significant portions of seaborne oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) the disruptions have led to increased global costs, especially for energy.
Ships avoiding the Red Sea have to reroute around the Horn of Africa, causing up to $1 million in extra fuel costs. Over 150 vessels have taken this longer path since November. Insurance premiums for Red Sea transit have surged nearly tenfold. Shipping companies such as CMA CGM have passed on these costs to consumers. India has also faced the fallout of the crisis with inflated shipping charges and a recent meeting by the Shipping Corporation of India revealed that there was a 9.3 per cent decline in August exports.
India and Iran have shared peaceful relation so far but Iran has criticised the Narendra Modi-led government’s decisions in the past and spoken up for the Muslims living in Kashmir.
When the war began last year, people in the Arab world quickly showed support for the Palestinians. However, there has been less focus on the protests against Israel’s violence in Gaza that have emerged across the Arab world. Governments have struggled to control these protest movements, and their long-term effects on regional politics are yet to be seen, according to a report by the Arab Centre, Washington DC. In Jordan, protests have continued in Amman and other major cities, challenging security forces with their size and determination. However, the government has responded quickly, arresting over 1,500 protesters since October (up to April 2024).
In Egypt, despite harsh repression under President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, people have repeatedly protested since the war started. Some demonstrations, like one in October, were significant enough that protesters managed to reach Tahrir Square for the first time since el-Sisi’s coup in 2013.
In Saudi Arabia, there has been a lack of organised protests due to severe restrictions on dissent. In Bahrain and Qatar, protests are closely monitored and controlled. The space for political action in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is so limited that most discussions about Palestine occur among Emiratis living in exile.
Saudi Arabia has also expressed growing concern over the potential rise of Shia influence in a neighbouring country following the rise of Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’, fearing it could have significant repercussions for its own Shia minority. The kingdom is particularly worried about the impact on its Shia population in the eastern region, a critical area due to its vast oil reserves. This demographic has historically felt marginalised and underrepresented in the Saudi government.
