The Russia-Ukraine War and its repercussions on global geopolitics have become a talking point since 2022. However, in addition to the war, issues like its consequences on the post-Soviet countries —particularly on the economic impact in post-Soviet space— along with the new opportunities for the countries of the Caspian region, which also includes Iran, considered to be an important geopolitical player, is also getting much attention from strategic analysts.
However, three complex geopolitical developments are taking place in the Caspian region, which need considerable attention.
Firstly, the operationalisation of a new energy corridor known as the Middle Corridor connecting Turkey with China. This route will significantly challenge Russia and the West’s quest for energy security.
Secondly, the lingering conflict between Azerbaijan and Iran is going to have an impact on Caspian energy.
Thirdly and finally, Russia’s weakening position in the Caspian energy geopolitics in the context of the Russia-Ukraine War and the imposition of sanctions by the West have also been responsible for the present economic crisis of Russia. There is a need to look at how far these strategic developments will affect the region’s security.
At the same time, there is a need to examine how India can strengthen its role in the Caspian Sea region. This is assuming importance in the context of stronger India-Russia energy cooperation. Similarly, Turkmenistan, Iran, and Kazakhstan are also emerging as major strategic partners of India in recent years. In this context, there is a need to look at the significance of the connectivity projects and the implications of the strategic developments in a broader context.
The connectivity issue is assumed necessary in the context of the Caspian countries as India- Iran and Central Asian countries concluded a two-day conference on Chahbahar hosted by India on April 13-15. Similarly, the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is also emerging as a new alternative route for Central Asian countries. This has been assumed important in recent years as there is much apprehension regarding China’s geopolitical motive in Central Asia and its Belt and Road project. However, the moot point is how relevant these projects —notably the INSTC— are in the context of present sanctions on Russia.
The Chahbahar port, which is assuming importance in recent years mainly as an entrepot for India’s access to Central Asia, is facing problems due coming of Taliban in power in Afghanistan. This hinders the delivery of humanitarian goods to Afghanistan and carries trade with Central Asian countries. The conclusion of the recent Joint Working Group of India-Central Asia Summit at Mumbai on Chabahar, where Iran was also a participant, to discuss some of the issues is the fallout of the Delhi Declaration on the 1st India-Central Asia Summit in January 2022 which took place in New Delhi. The Summit called for “the Central Asian countries to welcome the proposal of India to establish a Joint Working Group on Chabahar Port to address issues of free movements of goods and services between India and Central Asian countries”.
The holding of the conference by the Joint Working Group on Chahbahar just after the signing of the Iran-Saudi Arabia Summit reflects that India-Iran-Central Asia strategic relations are civilisational in nature.
Similarly, the Russia-Ukraine War and the changing geopolitical reconfiguration do not have much impact on the Chahbahar Project. As has been envisaged in the Joint Working Group (JWG) Summit on Chahbahar and the Joint Statement issued at the end of the JWG meeting appreciated “the further development of regional connectivity is essential for enhancing trade and commerce between India and Central Asian countries in the context of their land-locked nature and lack of overland connectivity with India”. This is a positive initiative to augment the infrastructure capabilities of the participating countries of the Chahbahar Port.
The recent JWG on Chabahar is a setback for China, which thinks it assumes a preponderant role in Iran following the conclusion of the Iran-Arab Agreement. Secondly, since Taliban-ruled Afghanistan is in a dire strait due to a food crisis, it cannot obstruct the free flow of food grains through this port. It is a fact that India is providing food grains to Afghanistan as part of UN-mandated humanitarian aid through this port. Through Chabahar, India can connect with the Turkmenbashi port in Turkmenistan through a road route. Since the India-Iran-Russia trade is going through the Chahbahar Port, this will augment India’s role in the Caspian region.
In the foreseeable future, India will play a more substantial role in the Turkmen energy sector. This is because Turkmenistan is fed up with Russia and China, considered significant stakeholders in the country’s energy sector. So, by promoting greater energy cooperation with India, Turkmenistan will diversify its energy cooperation. Similarly, India can use Turkmenistan as a hub for shaping energy relations with the Caspian region. In this regard, it is pertinent to mention that Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan cooperation is growing; hence India can take full advantage of that for cementing secured energy cooperation.
Another heartening development that is taking place in the context of connectivity projects is efforts are on to connect the Chahbahar Project with the INSTC Project. Through this route, India will have direct access to "Bander-e-Anzil and, from there, to Astrakhan Port" located in Russia. Hence India needs to strengthen connectivity projects with Astrakhan Port through the INSTC Route. As available studies suggest, India can use land routes from Astrakhan to enhance cooperation with the Caspian countries. In future, Astrakhan can be the springboard for India in shaping both Caspian Region and connecting with Europe. As studies suggest, financial constraints and bilateral disputes between Iran and Azerbaijan impede the completion of the Rasht-Astra 164-kilometre rail route. This completion of this route could have facilitated better connectivity within the INSTC framework.
Greater cooperation among India, Russia, and Iran can enhance regional cooperation through INSTC. In addition to the above route, India-Iran and Armenia can cooperate to strengthen connectivity projects in the framework of INSTC. It can be highlighted here that India can connect with the existing Iran-Armenia-Georgia road route. This will help India to communicate more effectively with the Black Sea and Caspian Region. The visiting Foreign Minister of Armenia also highlighted the same view to India. On 12 January 2023, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan in his address to the Voice of the South Virtual Summit highlighted that “we are interested in advancing cooperation within the framework of North-South connectivity, as well as the Persian Gulf — the Black Sea international transport corridor. Armenia considers India's potential and prospective role for these projects significant”. Thus, the Iran-Armenia-Georgia Corridor can help India augment its connectivity projects with Caspian and Black Sea regions.
The primary security challenge the Caspian region is currently confronting is that Azerbaijan flexes its muscles by using its energy money, thus creating a new kind of geopolitical and security crisis in this region. Similarly, Azerbaijan’s growing proximity with Turkey and Pakistan and the emergence of an unholy nexus cause serious security challenges to the Caspian region. As studies suggest, Turkey and Azerbaijan have a soft corner towards Pakistan and its activities relating to the proliferation of terrorist activities. This in a way poses considerable security challenges to India also.
Along with this, the historical memory of the genocide of the Armenian population at the hand of the Azerbaijani and the protracted Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is also a cause of concern. At the same time, China’s growing clout also threatens the security of the Caspian region.
Conclusion
Looking at its strategic location and the geoeconomic significance of the Caspian region, it can be stated that this region will have an important role in the geopolitics of post-Soviet Eurasia and the vicinity of the Persian region. In this context, India can balance the region’s security by strengthening connectivity with the Caspian region.
(Nalin Kumar Mohapatra is Assistant Professor at Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University. The views expressed are personal to the author.)
