President Vladimir Putin has taken one more step in the high-stakes poker game between him and President Joe Biden by formally recognising the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. Whether Putin has overplayed his hand is not yet clear but this move is leading to a dangerous escalation of the situation in Ukraine. The US and UK have already announced targeted sanctions.
Eastern Ukraine which is near the Russian border is largely Russian speaking and aligned to Moscow both culturally and politically. Donetsk and Luhansk have been at war with Kyiv since 2014. The initial demand of both these regions was greater autonomy and self-rule. Later they had declared independence, but Moscow had until now stopped short of recognising either of them. However, Moscow had provided both financial and military backing to the governments of the breakaway provinces.
Russia had possibly taken this drastic decision to bring home the point that the US and Europe have to take into account Moscow’s security concerns and give a commitment that NATO will not expand into Ukraine. During and after the break-up of the former Soviet Union, when negotiations were on with Europe and America, verbal commitments were given to former president Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO will not encircle Russia as the Cold War was over. But there was no written agreement. Verbal assurances mean little in the world of international diplomacy. Gorbachev possibly had immense trust in western leaders and did not insist on a written guarantee.
The consequence of that historical mistake by the Russian leadership of that time has been the forward movement of NATO into all the former eastern bloc countries. In 1999, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic became NATO members. In 2004, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia joined the military alliance. In 2009 it was Albania and Croatia, and finally Montenegro in 2017 and North Macedonia in 2020. So, NATO has tied up most countries from the former Soviet Union and is now aiming to get Ukraine into the western military fold. Kyiv is desperate to join NATO.
The latest Russian move was taken up at an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. In New York, India has called for restraint.
“We have been closely following the evolving developments relating to Ukraine, including developments along the eastern border of Ukraine and the related announcement by the Russian Federation,’’ India’s envoy to the UNSC T.S. Tirumurti said. "The immediate priority is a de-escalation of tensions taking into account the legitimate security interests of all countries and aimed towards securing long term peace and stability in the region and beyond,” he added.
