The drumbeats of war echo once more in West Asia as tensions escalate between Israel and Iran. Central to this crisis are some critical questions: what would a full-scale war between these two nations entail? Who would emerge victorious, and which military possesses the upper hand?
The capabilities of Israel and Iran differ significantly. Israel boasts one of the most powerful militaries in West Asia, while Iran has one of the largest. So, which force is superior? What firepower do they possess, and who stands a better chance of winning?
In terms of ground forces, Iran has the advantage due to its larger population —approximately 88.6 million compared to Israel’s 9.56 million. This demographic edge translates to a larger military presence, with Iran’s armed forces numbering at least 580,000 active personnel and 200,000 trained reserves. In contrast, Israel has about 170,000 active personnel and 465,000 reserve forces, making Iran’s active force more than three times larger. In addition, Iran has a bigger navy, more tanks and armoured vehicles and better access to fuel, giving it a superficial edge.
However, numbers alone do not tell the whole story. While quantity matters, quality — especially in terms of training and technological advancement — is equally critical. In this area, Israel has the advantage, backed by a stronger economy. Israel’s GDP stands at $539 billion, compared to Iran’s $413 billion. This financial disparity reflects in their military budgets: Iran’s is estimated at $10 billion, whereas Israel allocates approximately $24.4 billion, nearly 2.5 times more.
A significant factor in Israel’s military strength is its annual $3.8-billion military assistance from the United States, which allows for access to more advanced weaponry and superior force readiness.
Examining the capabilities on land, at sea and in the air reveals further contrasts. Iran produces its own tanks, such as the ‘Zulfiqar’ and the ‘Karrar’ series, often based on outdated designs of T-72s and T-54s. These are generally considered inferior to Israel’s ‘Merkava Mark IV’, one of the most advanced armoured tanks in use today.
Regarding naval power, while Iran’s navy is larger, Israel’s capabilities are superior. It is bolstered by access to advanced vessels and missiles from American and European suppliers.
In terms of air power, Israel has a greater arsenal: 612 aircraft compared to Iran’s 521. Israel’s air defence includes 66 F-15s, 177 F-16s and 27 F-35 stealth fighters. It makes it one of the most formidable in the world. In contrast, Iran’s air fleet is aging rapidly. To counter it, Iran employs a strategy. It deploys large quantities of weaponry as it relies heavily on its substantial inventory of ballistic and cruise missiles, which are capable of striking targets up to 2,000 kilometres away, placing Israel well within range.
Recently, Tehran has launched numerous explosive-laden drones against Israel, known as ‘Shahed’ (meaning witness in Persian), which are mass-produced and considered highly effective.
Additionally, Iran has key allies, notably Hezbollah, a Lebanese militia believed to possess over 70,000 rockets and missiles, including long-range precision-guided munitions. While conventional forces play a significant role, Israel is also thought to have the capability to launch nuclear strikes from land, air and sea, although it has never officially confirmed or denied possessing nuclear weapons.
In short, Iran holds numerical superiority, while Israel excels in technology. Although predicting a clear winner is challenging, one certainty remains: if tensions continue to escalate, the greatest losers will be the already unstable region and its millions of inhabitants.
