A key grouping of West African countries has made preparations of military inventions as the deadline given to the Niger's military rulers nears its end.
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) had given Niger's military rulers a deadline till Sunday to restore democracy in the country.
Niger's military announced on July 26 that President Mohamed Bazoum has been ousted and the military has taken over the country. Bazoum was seized by the presidential guard and its head, General Abdourahamane Tiani, took over as head of state.
Since then, the international community has shunned the coup and the United States has stopped some aid to the country. The country, battered by an Islamist region and located in the strife-torn Sahel region, depends heavily on foreign aid.
The 15-nation bloc ECOWAS has said it's willing to intervene militarily to force the restoration of democracy in Niger. The country's former colonial ruler France, which retains influence in the region, has also supported the ECOWAS plan to intervene but has not specified if it supports military intervention.
All elements of intervention worked out: ECOWAS
The ECOWAS has said that all elements that will go into any intervention in Niger have been worked out.
The deadline of Sunday for the restoration of democracy in Niger is nearing its end, but there is no indication that the military rulers are about to stand down.
The decision to intervene militarily and the sites of attack would be decided by the heads of states comprising the bloc, said Abdel-Fatau Musah, ECOWAS Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security.
"All the elements that will go into any eventual intervention have been worked out here, including the resources needed, the how and when we are going deploy the force," said Musah, as per Reuters.
Musah further said, "We want diplomacy to work, and we want this message clearly transmitted to them that we are giving them every opportunity to reverse what they have done."
ECOWAS Chairman, Nigeria's President Bola Tinubu, has also indicated that a military intervention is on the cards. CNN reported, citing local media, that Tinubu has written to inform the country's lawmakers, as he is legally required to do, of the bloc's intention for a military intervention in Niger if the military rulers "remain recalcitrant".
Why does Niger coup matter?
The importance of Niger to the region is driving the call for a military intervention in the country. Otherwise, ECOWAS has not intervened in every coup.
CNN noted that ECOWAS did not intervene in Mali or Burkina Faso that have witnessed multiple coups in recent areas. In fact, the area of West and Central Africa has witnessed seven coups since 2020.
Niger is located at a key location in the Sahel region which is battered by years of Islamist insurgency. With instability from the coup there, the fight against Islamists could be adversely affected which could in turn compromise the regional security.
Niger also has critical reserves of oil and uranium and has been an ally of the United States and France. Both the countries have got military bases in the country.
CNN further noted, "Niger has huge regional significance. It is the largest country in West Africa and a vital gateway between the Sahel and the rest of the continent. The Sahel region is beset with security challenges such as terrorism, and insurgency and the country is a critical battleground in the fight against terrorism and a focus for regional and international security efforts."
Noting the country has large uranium reserves, CNN calls it the country's "most notable asset".
An expert, however, said that an intervention could result in a compromise of sorts instead of restoration of power to the ousted president.
"Preparation is already in top gear, there’s no doubt about that and the military are on standby. To my own understanding, Nigeria is not going to back down and will do whatever it takes to return Niger to civilian rule. They want power returned to Bazoum but likely that may not be a feasible outcome. They may have to compromise by getting the junta to leave power but they will not hand over to Bazoum. They will lose out and Bazoum [will] too, and someone neutral could come in to run a transitional government," said Oluseyi Adetayo, an security and intelligence expert, to CNN.
