It is now clear that the Russia-Ukraine war is unlikely to end soon. It will be a long haul for both sides and the last dice has not yet been cast. But in one year of a major conventional war in Europe, the first, since the end of the Great War of 1945, which country has the advantage? The simple answer is neither Russia nor Ukraine.
But the war has had enormous ramifications across the world, landing it in chaos. The fighting has led to food shortages and volatility in the oil market. The worst affected are countries of the global south -- developing nations in Africa and Asia, struggling to fix their economies after the pandemic shut down.
President Vladimir Putin’s "special military operation" has proved costly for Russia. In terms of men and equipment, Russia has lost plenty. The reputation of the famed Russian army has taken a massive blow. Its equipment was outdated and the strategy of its military commanders had to be modified to accommodate ground reality. The normally astute Putin appears to have miscalculated Europe’s response. Led by US President Joe Biden, NATO countries have buried their past squabbles and united behind American leadership to give Putin a bloody nose. What is more, the very purpose for which the Russian invasion took place, to stop the eastward march of NATO has been defeated. Fearing Russia’s muscle flexing, former neutral countries like Finland and Sweden have also signed up for NATO membership.
Ukraine has been destroyed. Thousands were killed, infrastructure was blown up and people had to flee the country. No doubt Ukrainians have fought bravely to thwart the Russian advance and stopped the forward march of the enemy troops. But at an enormous cost to the country and its people that suffered the full force of the war.
President Zelenskyy has seemingly emerged strong, but is he really his own man? Can he call for peace without the approval of the US and NATO? No.
In fact, despite the glorification of Ukraine and its leader, the fact remains that the ball is in Washington’s court. Ukraine is the battleground and it is fighting not for itself alone but for the US and Europe. The west is spending billions of dollars in supporting and arming Ukraine with sophisticated weapons to take back territory ceded to Russia. Zelenskyy’s every wish is a command for US and Europe. At the recent Munich conference, Zelenskyy called for quick delivery of arms as Russia was preparing for a major offensive. After having forced Europe to supply Leopold 2 tanks, Zelenskyy now wants 16 Fighting Falcon, a multirole fighter aircraft developed for the U.S. Air Force — from its allies to help it fight Russia. Kyiv is confident that it will get the F-16s. Washington is providing 31 Abrams tanks. Patriot missile systems are already in place, as well as Himars or high mobility artillery rocket systems. The US is also backing Ukraine with intelligence inputs and military advice to help in the precision bombing of Russian targets. Every European country, including the UK, has provided tanks, guns, and missiles to Ukraine. The war is actually between the US and Russia with Ukraine being the proxy the enthusiasm for Zelenskyy in the US and Europe is not surprising. The country is now flushed with sophisticated arms which may come to haunt Europe a few years down the line. Remember what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan/Pakistan when the CIA poured sophisticated arms into the mujahideen warriors to fight the Soviet Army? The region is still suffering, thanks to the repercussions of that unrestricted flow of arms.
Is regime change likely in Russia?
The hopes of the US and its allies that the unprecedented sanctions imposed on Russia as well as the "unpopular war’" that has killed and wounded thousands of young men and placed Russia under unprecedented sanctions, would lead to public opinion turning against Putin.
Though the sanctions have not yet hit the man in the street, people know that eventually, the sanctions will hurt them. For now, it is the Russian elite that travels abroad to Europe or the US, that are feeling the pinch as travel has become increasingly difficult. The elite has often been pro-West, but the restrictions imposed on Russia by the US and Europe are not turning their anger against the President but is making all those who previously courted the west much more nationalist. "Public opinion is decidedly turning against the West," says Nandan Unnikrishnan, a senior fellow at the New Delhi-based think tank Observer Research Foundation (ORF). He is a frequent visitor and had worked out of Moscow in the past.
He explains that irrespective of whether Russians like President Putin or not, the country as a whole realizes that having NATO missiles pointed towards Russia, is dangerous. "Russians regard the Ukraine war as a war for existence, at a time when Russia is being cancelled in the west.’" For Russians in Europe or the US, the atmosphere is increasingly hostile. It is also not clear, whether Putin stays or goes. Whoever is at the helm in Moscow will follow the same policy,’’ says Unnikrishnan. "Unless there is a Black Swan event, Putin is staying put,’" he adds.
The majority of Russians understand that NATO expansion is tied to the security of Russia. Ukraine, once a part of the former Soviet Union, is in what is traditionally regarded as Russia’s backyard. NATO expansion has been a bugbear for even the most pro-American leaders including Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin both of whom had told the US and Europe that with capitalism winning over Communism, NATO should be disbanded. After all, it was a military transatlantic defence treaty for the protection of capitalism. With Communism no longer a threat, NATO’s job of protecting Europe should have been over by 1991. But after the break up of the former Soviet Union, NATO has expanded up to Russia’s very doorstep. Russia’s aim now seems to be the creation of an Eastern Ukraine buffer for Russian security in the Donbas region with the Russian ethnic majority provinces that had declared themselves independent like Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea remaining intact. Ukraine’s aim is to recover all lost territory including Crimea.
Developing world and the Ukraine War
Europe is backing Ukraine to the hilt but what of the rest of the world? Like India, most of Asia and Africa are keeping an equidistance. Despite enormous pressure from the west to wean India away from Russia, India is keeping all its options open and has so far managed to tread a fine balance between Russia and Ukraine. South Africa has been heavily criticized by the west for planning a joint naval exercise with Russia and China. South Africa says it is routine.
Peace efforts
Strange as it may seem, peace efforts have not gotten off the ground. No serious diplomatic move for peace has yet been made. The answer is simple, the US does not want the war to end without a humiliating defeat for Putin which will keep him from pulling far above his weight.
T.Sabri Oncu said in the Economic and Political Weekly, “Unless the world ends the war in Ukraine today, we all are losing. Our goal must be to bring peace to Ukraine now. And the Western sanctions imposed on Russia do not appear effective in achieving this goal. There must be another way.”
