The tit-for-tat attacks by Iran and Pakistan on terrorist camps inside each other’s territories have raised alarm bells around the world. At a time when Israel’s war on Gaza has led to the escalation of tension in the Middle East —from Lebanon to Iraq, Yemen, Syria and across the Red Sea— Iran’s action against Pakistan on Tuesday has led to fears of snowballing of tension not just in the region but beyond as far as Pakistan.
China, a close ally of Pakistan and a friend of Iran, has offered to mediate and bring down temperatures. Russia has called on both countries to exercise maximum restraint, while the United States has condemned Iran’s actions. The European Union (EU) said it was concerned about the “spiral of violence in the Middle East and beyond” after the missile attacks. EU spokesman Peter Stan said in a statement: “These attacks, including in Pakistan, in Iraq and Iran now are of utmost concern for the European Union because they violate the sovereignty and territorial integrity of countries, and they have also a destabilising effect on the region.”
But Iran’s attack on Sunni militant camps on Tuesday targeting the Jaish al Adl group in the border town of Panjgur in Pakistan’s restive Balochistan province may be exactly what the doctor ordered for Pakistan’s beleaguered Army chief Asim Munir. The focus for some time at least will be diverted from the Army’s bid to thwart former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his party from taking part in next month’s elections. The establishment is making its move through the manipulation of the judiciary and political leaders.
Since the arrest of Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) leader Imran Khan, the Pakistan Army once admired and held in high esteem by ordinary citizens has steadily lost much of its former sheen. Last year on May 9, when Imran Khan was unceremoniously arrested by paramilitary Rangers in Islamabad, his supporters went berserk. For the first time, public anger turned against the Army and irate mobs went on a rampage across towns and cities in Pakistan. Nearly 20 military installations and state buildings were damaged. The military headquarters in Rawalpindi also came under attack and the residence of a top military official was set on fire. People raised slogans against the Army, something unheard of in Pakistan.
The general public in Pakistan while criticising nearly every political leader as corrupt, incompetent, and self-seeker, believed that the Army was the only institution that they could look up to. That myth had long faded, but the Army remained a hallowed institution. But this was disrupted when the military top brass that had helped to install Imran Khan as Prime Minister decided to pull the rug under his feet. Once the cricketer-turned-politician was removed from office after losing a vote of no confidence in parliament, Imran began openly questioning the Army and criticising the then-Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa, who had helped to initially place him in power. When Bajwa finally hung up his boots, Asim Munir took over. But Imran’s supporters continued to publicly hit out at the Army for the wrong that was done to their leader. But then the General hit back. Cases were filed against all important PTI leaders. Supporters were threatened and media was told not to carry statements by PTI leaders or invite PTI supporters as guests for television debates.
Army officers, once seen as knights in shining armour ready to give their lives in the defence of the motherland, are no longer seen as the saviours of Pakistan by large sections of people in the country.
So Iran’s violation of Pakistan’s airspace and strike against terror camps in Pakistan allowed the Army to once again prove its credentials. After Tuesday’s attacks by Iran, it was only a matter of time before Pakistan responded to Iran’s provocation.
Pakistan hit back at Iran on Thursday morning, less than 48 hours since Tehran struck targets inside the country. The retaliatory attacks by Pakistan were in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province bordering Pakistan and killed nine people. Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said precision strikes were carried out using killer drones and that the attack was on “hideouts used by terrorist organizations namely Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) and codenamed Marg Bar Sarmachar”.
Pakistan was shocked by the Iranian action. For most analysts, it did not make sense. Sure, Pakistan and Iran have simmering differences in the border areas of the Balochistan region divided between the two countries and several incidents have taken place. Militant activities are on both sides of the border. Last year, there were several terrorist attacks, according to a report in Dawn, a leading English daily. In December last year, 11 Iranian law enforcement personnel were killed in an ambush at a police station. Iranian officials have claimed the attackers entered from the Pakistan side of the border. Similarly, there were two attacks on Pakistani troops from assailants coming from the Iranian side. This has continued year on year but had never led to targeted action by Iran.
The Iranian regime is on the backfoot since the terror attack at the beginning of the year at a memorial event to mark the first death anniversary of General Qassem Soleimani in the Kerman Martyrs Cemetery killed nearly 84 people and injured hundreds of others, some grievously. The ISIS claimed responsibility. Sayyed Razi Mousavi, one of the top IRGC commanders in Syria, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Damascus recently. Iran had threatened revenge for both these incidents. So, in the last few days, Iran has conducted strikes in Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan. The Iranian leadership appears rattled since the terror incident in Soleimani’s memorial and needs to prove to the domestic audience that the Supreme Leader is in control.
The strike inside Pakistani territory is inexplicable. The Iranian and Pakistani navies had concluded joint exercises just two days before Tuesday’s attacks. The caretaker Prime Minister of Pakistan, Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar, had met with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in Davos where both were attending the World Economic Forum (WEF) currently being held there. Kakar has since flown back to Islamabad following the crisis. Iran’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, Hassan Kazmi Qomi, was in Islamabad on Monday to meet Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani and his Pakistani counterpart Asif Durrani. In neither meeting was there any hint of what was to happen. Domestic compulsions of the Iranian regime are perhaps dictating much of the belligerent action now on display.
