The Shanghai Cooperation Summit (SCO) in Uzbekistan is being held against the backdrop of changing international dynamics as differences between Russia and China on the one hand and the US and its allies on the other get sharper by the day. The SCO this time is expected to welcome Iran to the fold, another country with which the west has major issues. The SCO is China and Russia’s attempts to offer an alternative to the current US-dominated world order.
The SCO proceedings, and more so the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping on the sidelines will be closely watched by Washington. The meeting takes place amid deepening no-limits friendship between Russia and China and a ganging up of the two amid continuing tension with the US. The Ukraine war has further accentuated the differences. Russian forces have in the last few days suffered reverses in Ukraine, whether this will have any impact on relations is not clear.
"What the leaders of Russia and China discuss in the meeting will have far-reaching strategic implications, of which we may not be aware immediately,’’ a former official who did not wish to be identified said. "China is watching the war in Ukraine with some amount of anxiety,’’ he added.
The SCO, launched in 2001, is the brainchild of China and Russia, a Eurasian political, economic and security grouping with all former Soviet Republics as members. India and Pakistan joined in later. The eight-member countries are - China, Russia, Pakistan, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Together the SCO represents 40 per cent of the world’s population and nearly 30 of the global GDP.
While Russia has excellent political and security ties with these former republics, it is China which provides funds for infrastructure projects. Chinese influence has been growing in Central Asia in the last two decades.
India too which has historical ties with Central Asian countries has ramped up its diplomacy in the region. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be meeting many of the central Asian leaders and certainly a bilateral with Putin is expected. India is one of the few member states that have a toe in both the SCO as well as the Quad, the US, India, Japan, and Australia grouping, primarily to contain growing Chinese military and economic clout in Asia. So far New Delhi has been able to do a neat tightrope walk and serve its own strategic interest.
Since the withdrawal of the US forces from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover in Kabul, regional security has become a major concern, especially for its neighbours. SCO already has in place the Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) to boost cooperation and coordination among member countries to combat terrorism. Afghanistan and the different terrorist organisations active under Taliban rule will be discussed during the meeting.
The Taliban’s inability after nearly a year in power to transform stabilise the situation and graduate from an insurgent outfit is making neighbours like Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan as well as Iran anxious about the spillover of extremist Islamist groups into their territory.
